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2009 Burlington mayoral election: Difference between revisions

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{{Wikipedia|2009 Burlington mayoral election}}
 
In March 2009, the city of [[w:Burlington,_Vermont|Burlington, Vermont]] held a mayoral election. [[Vermont Progressive Party]] candidate Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for [[Democratic Party]] candidate Andy Montroll over Kiss.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web|url=http://scorevoting.net/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|last=Gierzynski|first=Anthony|last2=Hamilton|first2=Wes|date=March 2009|website=RangeVoting.org|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=1 October 2017|quote=Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ... voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved|last3=Smith|first3=Warren D.}}</ref><ref name=":8">{{Cite journal|last=Ornstein|first=Joseph T.|last2=Norman|first2=Robert Z.|date=2014-10-01|title=Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections|journal=Public Choice|language=en|volume=161|issue=1–2|pages=1–9|doi=10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2|issn=0048-5829|quote=Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Lewyn|first=Michael|date=2012|title=Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting|url=|journal=Phoenix L. Rev.|language=en|volume=6|page=117|pages=|ssrn=2276015|quote=election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'|via=}}</ref> As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters [[w:Instant-runoff_voting_in_the_United_States#2010_Burlington_repeal|narrowly voted to repeal IRV]], reverting to their [[Runoff voting|prior system of holding a runoff]] if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote.
 
Unlike Burlington's first IRV mayoral election in 2006, the mayoral race in 2009 was decided in three rounds. Bob Kiss won the election, receiving 28.8% of the vote in the first round, and receiving 48.0% in the final round (which made up 51.5% of the ballots which had not been exhausted), defeating final challenger Kurt Wright (who received more votes than Kiss in the earlier rounds, but only received 45.2% in the final round).
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|-
|Kurt Wright
|[[File:Republican Disc.svg|20x20px30x30px]] [[Republican Party]]
| align="right" |2,951
| align="right" |32.9%
| rowspan="3" |Ballots preferring Kiss, Wright, and Montroll advance to the second round.
|- ▼
|- {{Party shading/Vermont Progressive}}
|Bob Kiss
| [[File:BSicon exlBHF pinkMoose_icon_(Noun_Project).svg|20x20px30x30px]][[Vermont Progressive Party|Progressive Party]]
| align="right" |2,585
| align="right" |28.8%
|- ▼
|- {{Party shading/Democratic}}
| Andy Montroll
|[[File:Democratic Disc.svg|20x20px30x30px]] [[Democratic Party]]
| align="right" |
2,063
| align="right" | 23.0%
|-
|Dan Smith
|[[File:NeutralPartyPlaceholder.svg|30x30px]](independent)
| align="right" |1,306
| align="right" |14.5%
| rowspan="3" |Ballots preferring Smith, Simpson and the write-in candidate were distributed to Kiss, Wright, and Montroll in the second round according to the first remaining preference on these ballots.
|-
|James Simpson
|[[File:Green Disc.svg|20x20px30x30px]] [[Green Party]]
| align="right" |35
| align="right" |0.4%
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| colspan="2" |Write-in
| align="right" | 36
| align="right" | 0.4%
|-
| colspan="2" |''(exhausted pile)''
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|-
| colspan="2" |'''Totals'''
| align="right" | 8,980
| align="right" |100.0%
|}
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pct. (%)
!Comment
|- ▼
|- {{Party shading/Republican}}
| Kurt Wright
|[[File:Republican Disc.svg|20x20px]] [[Republican Party]]
| align="right" | +343
| align="right" |3,294
| align="right" |36.7%
| rowspan="2" |Ballots preferring Kiss and Wright advanced to the third round.
|-
|Bob Kiss
|[[File:BSicon exlBHF pinkMoose_icon_(Noun_Project).svg|20x20px]][[Vermont Progressive Party|Progressive Party]]
| align="right" | +396
| align="right" |2,981
| align="right" |33.2%
|- ▼
|- {{Party shading/Democratic}}
|Andy Montroll
|[[File:Democratic Disc.svg|20x20px]] [[Democratic Party]]
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| align="right" |2,554
| align="right" |28.4%
| Ballots preferring Montroll were distributed to Kiss and Wright in the third round according to final remaining preference on these ballots.
|-
| colspan="2" |''(exhausted pile)''
| align="right" | +147
| align="right" |151
| align="right" | 1.7%
| rowspan="2" |
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Totals'''
| align="right" |8,980
| align="right" |100.0%
|}
 
=== Third round ===
In the third round, Montroll's ballots from the second round were distributed to Kiss and Wright. Since manytMontrollmany Montroll voters supported Kiss rather than Wright as their final remaining preference, Kiss pulled into the lead in the third round. Because 6.7% of voters didn't express a preference between Kiss and Wright (with their preferred candidate eliminated in prior rounds, and their ballots placed in the "exhausted pile"), Kiss prevailed over Wright with a plurality of 48.0%.
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Candidate
!Party
!Transfers from
Line 122:
|- {{Party shading/Vermont Progressive}}
|Bob Kiss
|[[File:BSicon exlBHF pinkMoose_icon_(Noun_Project).svg|20x20px]][[Vermont Progressive Party|Progressive Party]]
| align="right" | +1332
| align="right" |'''4,313'''
| align="right" |'''48.0%'''
|- {{Party shading/Republican}}
|Kurt Wright
| [[File:Republican Disc.svg|20x20px]] [[Republican Party]]
| align="right" | +767
| align="right" |4,061
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===Pairwise results===
This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009 had they used a pairwise method such as the [[Copeland method]]:<ref name=":3">{{Cite web|url=https://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html|title=2009 Burlington Mayor IRV Failure|last=Olson|first=Brian|date=2009|website=bolson.org|access-date=1 October 2017|quote=This is an IRV failure. The IRV result is clearly not what people actually wanted. More people liked Montroll over Kiss than the other way around, but IRV elected the loser.}}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite web|url=http://electowiki.org/wiki/2009_Burlington,_Vermont_Mayoral_Election|title=2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election|website=Electowiki|language=en|access-date=2018-01-03}}</ref>
 
{| class="wikitable"
{{Burlington 2009 pairwise table}}
▲|-
 
![[File:Democratic Disc.svg|60x60px]]
!Andy Montroll
([[Democratic Party]])
| colspan="5" |4 wins and no losses (4-0)
|'''4 Wins ↓'''
▲|-
![[File:BSicon exlBHF pink.svg|60x60px]]
!Bob Kiss
([[Vermont Progressive Party]])
| colspan="4" |3 wins, 1 loss (3-1)
|'''1 Loss''' →
↓ '''3 Wins'''
|4064 (Montroll) –
3476 (Kiss)
▲|-
![[File:Republican Disc.svg|60x60px]]
!Kurt Wright
([[Republican|Republican Party]])
| colspan="3" |2 wins, 2 losses (2-2)
|'''2 Losses''' →
'''2 Wins''' ↓
|4313 (Kiss) –
4061 (Wright)
|4597 (Montroll) –
3664 (Wright)
▲|-
!
!Dan Smith (Independent)
| colspan="2" |1 win, 3 losses (1-3)
|'''3 Losses''' →
'''1 Win''' ↓
|3971 (Wright) –
3793 (Smith)
|3944 (Kiss) –
3576 (Smith)
|4570 (Montroll) –
2997 (Smith)
|-
![[File:Green Disc.svg|60x60px]]
!James Simpson
([[Green Party]])
|0 wins, 4 losses (0-4)
|'''4 Losses''' →
|5570 (Smith) –
721 (Simpson)
|5270 (Wright) –
1310 (Simpson)
|5514 (Kiss) –
844 (Simpson)
|6262 (Montroll) –
591 (Simpson)
|}
This leads to an overall preference ranking of:<ref name=":2" />
 
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!
 
! Top preference
|-
|Kurt Wright (Republican)
Line 222 ⟶ 171:
|-
|Bob Kiss (Progressive)
|2585
|-
|Andy Montroll (Democrat)
|2063
|-
|Dan Smith (Independent)
| 1306
|-
|James Simpson (Green)
|35
|-
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To the right is an infographic which attempts to clearly depict the pairwise results in a tidy SVG diagram. Well, actually, it's a scaled down PNG, so it's a little hard to read. If you click it. it'll expand.
 
Here is a link to the [[w:SVG]] version in a few different forms:
 
*File link on this wiki: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]
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**Note: ^This may or may not work in some browsers, but it works pretty well in [[w:Mozilla Firefox]].
*Static PNG link: https://static.miraheze.org/electowikiwiki/thumb/4/4f/Burlington2009election-infosheet.png/900px-Burlington2009election-infosheet.png
 
==Further analysis==▼
==Links==
*[http://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html Brian Olson's analysis of the election]▼
 
===Raw data===
Raw data: [[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data]] ▼
Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages:
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Kiss Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Bob Kiss (P) voters]]
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Montroll Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Andy Montroll (D) voters]]
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Smith Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters]]
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Wright Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters]]
 
▲Raw data: [[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data]]
===Videos===
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p50fctZC6Bw Ranked Choice Ballots in Burlington] &mdash; creator: [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-a0XRd2fJanxybICJ5uz-w Sygnol]; date: August 12, 2019 "''Data visualization of Burlington Vermont's controversial 2009 Mayoral election, comparing results from the best known Ranked Choice Voting tabulation systems: Instant Runoff, Condorcet and Borda (Abbreviated version of the original video).''"
 
▲==Further=Offsite analysis===
▲*[http://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html Brian Olson's analysis of the election]
 
===FootnotesReferences===
<references />
 
[[Category:IRV elections|Vermont]]
[[Category:Vermont]]
[[Category:Mayoral elections in the United States|Vermont]]
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