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2009 Burlington mayoral election: Difference between revisions
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{{Wikipedia|2009 Burlington mayoral election}}
In March 2009, the city of [[Burlington, Vermont]] held a mayoral election. [[Vermont Progressive Party]] candidate Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for [[Democratic Party]] candidate Andy Montroll over Kiss.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web|url=http://scorevoting.net/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|last=Gierzynski|first=Anthony|last2=Hamilton|first2=Wes|date=March 2009|website=RangeVoting.org|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=1 October 2017|quote=Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ... voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved|last3=Smith|first3=Warren D.}}</ref><ref name=":8">{{Cite journal|last=Ornstein|first=Joseph T.|last2=Norman|first2=Robert Z.|date=2014-10-01|title=Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections|journal=Public Choice|language=en|volume=161|issue=1–2|pages=1–9|doi=10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2|issn=0048-5829|quote=Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Lewyn|first=Michael|date=2012|title=Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting|url=|journal=Phoenix L. Rev.|language=en|volume=6|page=117|pages=|ssrn=2276015|quote=election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'|via=}}</ref> As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters [[w:Instant-runoff_voting_in_the_United_States#2010_Burlington_repeal|narrowly voted to repeal IRV]], reverting to their [[Runoff voting|prior system of holding a runoff]] if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote.
Unlike Burlington's first IRV mayoral election in 2006, the mayoral race in 2009 was decided in three rounds. Bob Kiss won the election, receiving 28.8% of the vote in the first round, and receiving 48.0% in the final round (which made up 51.5% of the ballots which had not been exhausted), defeating final challenger Kurt Wright (who received more votes than Kiss in the earlier rounds, but only received 45.2% in the final round).
== Results ==
The city of [[W:Burlington, Vermont|Burlington, Vermont]] held a mayoral election on March 3, 2009. This was the second mayoral election since the city's 2005 approval of [[instant-runoff voting]] (IRV).<ref name="burlington_votes">[http://www.burlingtonvotes.org/faq 4. How did this change to IRV come about?] ''Over 64% of Burlington voters voted in favor of the IRV Charter amendment in March, 2005, and it went into effect on May 12, 2005, when the governor signed the ratification bill, H.505, which had been passed by both the House and Senate.''</ref> A candidate from the [[Vermont Progressive Party]] (Bob Kiss) had won the first election under the system in 2006. In 2009, he was running for reelection.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ci.burlington.vt.us/mayor/|title=Mayor Bob Kiss|website=City of Burlington|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071129081028/http://www.ci.burlington.vt.us/mayor/|archive-date=2007-11-29|access-date=2007-11-16}}</ref>
The official results of the 2009 election were as follows:<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.burlingtonvotes.org/20090303/2009%20Burlington%20Mayor%20Round.htm|title=ChoicePlus Pro 2009 Burlington Mayor Round Detail Report|date=2011-07-25|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110725111725/http://www.burlingtonvotes.org/20090303/2009%20Burlington%20Mayor%20Round.htm|archive-date=2011-07-25|access-date=2018-01-03}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.burlingtonvotes.org/20090303/2009%20Burlington%20Mayor%20Round4.htm|title=ChoicePlus Pro 2009 Burlington Mayor Round 4 Report|date=March 3, 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110725111051/http://www.burlingtonvotes.org/20090303/2009%20Burlington%20Mayor%20Round4.htm|archive-date=2011-07-25|url-status=dead|access-date=2011-02-28}}</ref>
===First round===
In the first round, Dan Smith and Jason Simpson were eliminated, as well as the all of the write-in candidates. There were four ballots that did not have preferences listed, so they were placed in the "exhausted pile" to indicate that those ballots would play no active role in later rounds. Ballots for Smith, Simpson and the write-in candidates were transferred to the second preference on those ballots for the second round (or were moved into the "exhausted pile" in the second round).
{| class="wikitable"
|-
!Candidate
!Party
!First round
votes
!First round
pct. (%)
!Comments
|-
|Kurt Wright
|[[File:Republican Disc.svg|30x30px]] [[Republican Party]]
| align="right" |2,951
| align="right" |32.9%
| rowspan="3" |Ballots preferring Kiss, Wright, and Montroll advance to the second round.
|-
|Bob Kiss
|[[File:Moose_icon_(Noun_Project).svg|30x30px]][[Vermont Progressive Party|Progressive Party]]
| align="right" |2,585
| align="right" |28.8%
|-
|Andy Montroll
|[[File:Democratic Disc.svg|30x30px]] [[Democratic Party]]
| align="right" |
2,063
| align="right" | 23.0%
|-
|Dan Smith
|[[File:NeutralPartyPlaceholder.svg|30x30px]](independent)
| align="right" |1,306
| align="right" |14.5%
| rowspan="3" |Ballots preferring Smith, Simpson and the write-in candidate were distributed to Kiss, Wright, and Montroll in the second round according to the first remaining preference on these ballots.
|-
|James Simpson
|[[File:Green Disc.svg|30x30px]] [[Green Party]]
| align="right" |35
| align="right" |0.4%
|-
| colspan="2" |Write-in
| align="right" | 36
| align="right" |0.4%
|-
| colspan="2" |''(exhausted pile)''
| align="right" |4
| align="right" |0.0%
| rowspan="2" align="right" |
|-
| colspan="2" |'''Totals'''
| align="right" | 8,980
| align="right" |100.0%
|}
===Second round===
In the second round, Simpson's, Smith's and the write-in candidates' ballots were transferred to Kiss, Wright, or Montroll (depending on the voter's greatest remaining preference). Montroll had the fewest first-remaining preferences, and thus was eliminated prior to the third round, with Montroll's ballots being distributed to Kiss and Wright according to the final remaining preference on ballots preferring Montroll.
{| class="wikitable"
|-
!Candidate
!Party
!Transfers from
first round
!Second round
votes
!Second round
pct. (%)
!Comment
|-
| Kurt Wright
|[[File:Republican Disc.svg|20x20px]] [[Republican Party]]
| align="right" | +343
| align="right" |3,294
| align="right" |36.7%
| rowspan="2" |Ballots preferring Kiss and Wright advanced to the third round.
|-
|Bob Kiss
|[[File:Moose_icon_(Noun_Project).svg|20x20px]][[Vermont Progressive Party|Progressive Party]]
| align="right" | +396
| align="right" |2,981
| align="right" |33.2%
|-
|Andy Montroll
|[[File:Democratic Disc.svg|20x20px]] [[Democratic Party]]
| align="right" | +491
| align="right" |2,554
| align="right" |28.4%
|Ballots preferring Montroll were distributed to Kiss and Wright in the third round according to final remaining preference on these ballots.
|-
| colspan="2" |''(exhausted pile)''
| align="right" | +147
| align="right" |151
| align="right" |1.7%
| rowspan="2" |
|-
| colspan="3" |'''
| align="right" |8,980
| align="right" |100.0%
|}
===Third round ===
In the third round, Montroll's ballots from the second round were distributed to Kiss and Wright. Since many Montroll voters supported Kiss rather than Wright as their final remaining preference, Kiss pulled into the lead in the third round. Because 6.7% of voters didn't express a preference between Kiss and Wright (with their preferred candidate eliminated in prior rounds, and their ballots placed in the "exhausted pile"), Kiss prevailed over Wright with a plurality of 48.0%.
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Candidate
!Party
!Transfers from
second round
!Third round
votes
!Third round
pct. (%)
|- {{Party shading/Vermont Progressive}}
|Bob Kiss
|[[File:Moose_icon_(Noun_Project).svg|20x20px]][[Vermont Progressive Party|Progressive Party]]
| align="right" | +1332
| align="right" |'''4,313'''
| align="right" |'''48.0%'''
|- {{Party shading/Republican}}
|Kurt Wright
|[[File:Republican Disc.svg|20x20px]] [[Republican Party]]
| align="right" | +767
| align="right" |4,061
| align="right" |45.2%
|-
| colspan="2" |''(exhausted pile)''
| align="right" | +455
| align="right" |606
| align="right" |6.7%
|-
| colspan="3" |'''
| align="right" |8,980
| align="right" |100.0%
|}
==Analysis==
Unlike in the city's first IRV mayoral election three years prior, however, Kiss was neither the [[Plurality voting|plurality]] winner nor the [[Condorcet winner criterion|Condorcet winner]].<ref name="VermontDaily">{{cite web|url=http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p%3D1215|title=Point/Counterpoint: Terry Bouricius Attempts To Rip Professor Gierzynski A New One Over Instant Runoff Voting Controversy (Now With All New Gierzynski Update!)|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110726125759/http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1215|archive-date=July 26, 2011|access-date=December 30, 2010}}</ref><ref name=":92">{{cite web|url=http://rangevoting.org/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|website=RangeVoting.org|access-date=2016-04-01}}</ref> This led to a controversy about the use of IRV in mayoral elections,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1213|title=Voting Paradoxes and Perverse Outcomes: Political Scientist Tony Gierzynski Lays Out A Case Against Instant Runoff Voting|last=Baruth|first=Philip|date=March 12, 2009|publisher=Vermont Daily Briefing|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110726125814/http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1213|archive-date=July 26, 2011}}</ref> culminating in a successful 2010 citizen's [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative initiative] repealing IRV's use by a vote of 52% to 48%.<ref name="repeal2">{{cite web|url=http://www.wcax.com/story/12074080/burlington-voters-repeal-irv|title=Burlington voters repeal IRV|date=March 2, 2010|publisher=[[WCAX-TV|Wcax.com]]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160409132306/http://www.wcax.com/story/12074080/burlington-voters-repeal-irv|archive-date=2016-04-09|access-date=March 28, 2016}}</ref><ref name="rutland_herald">{{cite web|url=http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20100427/NEWS03/4270339/1004/NEWS03|title=Instant run-off voting experiment ends in Burlington : Rutland Herald Online|date=2010-04-27|website=Rutlandherald.com|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304055602/http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20100427/NEWS03/4270339/1004/NEWS03#|archive-date=2016-03-04|access-date=2016-04-01}}</ref><ref name="BVT20100302">{{cite web|url=https://www.burlingtonvt.gov/sites/default/files/CT/ElectionResults/20100302/election_summary_report_20100302.pdf|title=Official Results Of 2010 Annual City Election|date=March 2, 2010|work=City of Burlington}}</ref> Ranked-choice voting would thus remain unused in Burlington until 2021, when voters again adopted IRV for all city council elections (but not mayoral ones) by a vote of 64% to 36%.<ref name="Ballotpedia">{{cite web|url=https://ballotpedia.org/Burlington,_Vermont,_Question_4,_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Amendment_(March_2021)|title=Burlington, Vermont, Question 4, Ranked-Choice Voting Amendment (March)|website=Ballotpedia.org|access-date=18 April 2021}}</ref>
===Pairwise results===
This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009 had they used a pairwise method such as the [[Copeland method]]:<ref name=":3">{{Cite web|url=https://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html|title=2009 Burlington Mayor IRV Failure|last=Olson|first=Brian|date=2009|website=bolson.org|access-date=1 October 2017|quote=This is an IRV failure. The IRV result is clearly not what people actually wanted. More people liked Montroll over Kiss than the other way around, but IRV elected the loser.}}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite web|url=http://electowiki.org/wiki/2009_Burlington,_Vermont_Mayoral_Election|title=2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election|website=Electowiki|language=en|access-date=2018-01-03}}</ref>
{{Burlington 2009 pairwise table}}
This leads to an overall preference ranking of:<ref name=":2" />
#Montroll – defeats all candidates below, including Kiss (4,064 to 3,476)
#Kiss – defeats all candidates below, including Wright (4,313 to 4,061)
#Wright – defeats all candidates below, including Smith (3,971 to 3,793)
#Smith – defeats Simpson (5,570 to 721) and the write-in candidates
Montroll was therefore preferred over Kiss by 54% of voters, preferred over Wright by 56% of voters, over Smith by 60%, and over Simpson by 91% of voters.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.electionscience.org/library/irv-and-core-support/|title=IRV and Core Support|website=The Center for Election Science|language=en-US|access-date=2019-12-04}}</ref><ref name=":9">{{cite web|url=http://rangevoting.org/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|website=RangeVoting.org|access-date=2016-04-01}}</ref>
===Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post)===
Since voters are only allowed to provide their top preference in the "[[first-past-the-post]]" (plurality) voting system, it s likely that Kurt Wright would have won this election had all voters naively voted for their top preference
{|
!
! Top preference
|-
|Kurt Wright (Republican)
|2951
|-
|Bob Kiss (Progressive)
|2585
|-
|Andy Montroll (Democrat)
|2063
|-
|Dan Smith (Independent)
|1306
|-
|James Simpson (Green)
|35
|-
|Write-in
|36
|}
==Infographic==
[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.png|alt=visual depiction of pairwise results in 2009|thumb|388x388px|Source file: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]. Original file history: https://wiki.electorama.com/wiki/File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg#filehistory]]
{{hashtag|hashtag=Visual depiction of IRV results}}
To the right is an infographic which attempts to clearly depict the pairwise results in a tidy SVG diagram. Well, actually, it's a scaled down PNG, so it's a little hard to read. If you click it. it'll expand.
Here is a link to the [[w:SVG]] version in a few different forms:
*File link on this wiki: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]
*Static SVG link: https://static.miraheze.org/electowikiwiki/9/90/Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg
**Note: ^This may or may not work in some browsers, but it works pretty well in [[w:Mozilla Firefox]].
*Static PNG link: https://static.miraheze.org/electowikiwiki/thumb/4/4f/Burlington2009election-infosheet.png/900px-Burlington2009election-infosheet.png
==Links==
===Raw data===
Raw data: [[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data]]
Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages:
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Kiss Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Bob Kiss (P) voters]]
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Montroll Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Andy Montroll (D) voters]]
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Smith Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters]]
*[[User:RobLa/2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Wright Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters]]
===Videos===
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p50fctZC6Bw Ranked Choice Ballots in Burlington] — creator: [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-a0XRd2fJanxybICJ5uz-w Sygnol]; date: August 12, 2019 "''Data visualization of Burlington Vermont's controversial 2009 Mayoral election, comparing results from the best known Ranked Choice Voting tabulation systems: Instant Runoff, Condorcet and Borda (Abbreviated version of the original video).''"
===Offsite analysis===
*[http://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html Brian Olson's analysis of the election]
===
<references />
[[Category:IRV elections|Vermont]]
[[Category:Vermont]]
[[Category:Mayoral elections in the United States|Vermont]]
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