2009 Burlington mayoral election: Difference between revisions

In March 2009, the city of [[w:Burlington,_Vermont|Burlington, Vermont]] held a mayoral election. [[Vermont Progressive Party]] candidate Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for [[Democratic Party]] candidate Andy Montroll over Kiss.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web|url=http://scorevoting.net/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|last=Gierzynski|first=Anthony|last2=Hamilton|first2=Wes|date=March 2009|website=RangeVoting.org|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=1 October 2017|quote=Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ... voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved|last3=Smith|first3=Warren D.}}</ref><ref name=":8">{{Cite journal|last=Ornstein|first=Joseph T.|last2=Norman|first2=Robert Z.|date=2014-10-01|title=Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections|journal=Public Choice|language=en|volume=161|issue=1–2|pages=1–9|doi=10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2|issn=0048-5829|quote=Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Lewyn|first=Michael|date=2012|title=Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting|url=|journal=Phoenix L. Rev.|language=en|volume=6|page=117|pages=|ssrn=2276015|quote=election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'|via=}}</ref> As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters [[w:Instant-runoff_voting_in_the_United_States#2010_Burlington_repeal|narrowly voted to repeal IRV]], reverting to their [[Runoff voting|prior system of holding a runoff]] if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote.

 

 

 

{| class="wikitable"

|-

!Party

|- {{Party shading/Vermont Progressive}}

| align="right" |28.8%

|- {{Party shading/Democratic}}

| Andy Montroll

| align="right" |23.0%

|-

| align="right" |14.5%

|-

| align="right" |0.4%

|-

| align="right" | 36

|-

| align="right" |0.0%

|-

| align="right" |100.0%

| align="right" |100.0%

|}

 

Unlike in the city's first IRV mayoral election three years prior, however, Kiss was neither the [[Plurality voting|plurality]] winner nor the [[Condorcet winner criterion|Condorcet winner]].<ref name="VermontDaily">{{cite web|url=http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p%3D1215|title=Point/Counterpoint: Terry Bouricius Attempts To Rip Professor Gierzynski A New One Over Instant Runoff Voting Controversy (Now With All New Gierzynski Update!)|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110726125759/http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1215|archive-date=July 26, 2011|access-date=December 30, 2010}}</ref><ref name=":92">{{cite web|url=http://rangevoting.org/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|website=RangeVoting.org|access-date=2016-04-01}}</ref> This led to a controversy about the use of IRV in mayoral elections,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1213|title=Voting Paradoxes and Perverse Outcomes: Political Scientist Tony Gierzynski Lays Out A Case Against Instant Runoff Voting|last=Baruth|first=Philip|date=March 12, 2009|publisher=Vermont Daily Briefing|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110726125814/http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1213|archive-date=July 26, 2011}}</ref> culminating in a successful 2010 citizen's [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative initiative] repealing IRV's use by a vote of 52% to 48%.<ref name="repeal2">{{cite web|url=http://www.wcax.com/story/12074080/burlington-voters-repeal-irv|title=Burlington voters repeal IRV|date=March 2, 2010|publisher=[[WCAX-TV|Wcax.com]]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160409132306/http://www.wcax.com/story/12074080/burlington-voters-repeal-irv|archive-date=2016-04-09|access-date=March 28, 2016}}</ref><ref name="rutland_herald">{{cite web|url=http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20100427/NEWS03/4270339/1004/NEWS03|title=Instant run-off voting experiment ends in Burlington : Rutland Herald Online|date=2010-04-27|website=Rutlandherald.com|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304055602/http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20100427/NEWS03/4270339/1004/NEWS03#|archive-date=2016-03-04|access-date=2016-04-01}}</ref><ref name="BVT20100302">{{cite web|url=https://www.burlingtonvt.gov/sites/default/files/CT/ElectionResults/20100302/election_summary_report_20100302.pdf|title=Official Results Of 2010 Annual City Election|date=March 2, 2010|work=City of Burlington}}</ref> Ranked-choice voting would thus remain unused in Burlington until 2021, when voters again adopted IRV for all city council elections (but not mayoral ones) by a vote of 64% to 36%.<ref name="Ballotpedia">{{cite web|url=https://ballotpedia.org/Burlington,_Vermont,_Question_4,_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Amendment_(March_2021)|title=Burlington, Vermont, Question 4, Ranked-Choice Voting Amendment (March)|website=Ballotpedia.org|access-date=18 April 2021}}</ref>

This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009 had they used a pairwise method such as the [[Copeland method]]:<ref name=":3">{{Cite web|url=https://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html|title=2009 Burlington Mayor IRV Failure|last=Olson|first=Brian|date=2009|website=bolson.org|access-date=1 October 2017|quote=This is an IRV failure. The IRV result is clearly not what people actually wanted. More people liked Montroll over Kiss than the other way around, but IRV elected the loser.}}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite web|url=http://electowiki.org/wiki/2009_Burlington,_Vermont_Mayoral_Election|title=2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election|website=Electowiki|language=en|access-date=2018-01-03}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable"

|-

![[File:Democratic Disc.svg|60x60px]]

([[Democratic Party]])

| colspan="5" |4 wins and no losses (4-0)

!Bob Kiss

([[Vermont Progressive Party]])

|'''1 Loss''' →

↓ '''3 Wins'''

|4064 (Montroll) –

|-

!Kurt Wright

([[Republican|Republican Party]])

'''2 Wins''' ↓

|4313 (Kiss) –

|4597 (Montroll) –

3664 (Wright)

!

!Dan Smith (Independent)

|'''3 Losses''' →

'''1 Win''' ↓

|5514 (Kiss) –

844 (Simpson)

591 (Simpson)

|}

This leads to an overall preference ranking of:<ref name=":2" />

 

#Kiss – defeats all candidates below, including Wright (4,313 to 4,061)

#Wright – defeats all candidates below, including Smith (3,971 to 3,793)

 

Montroll was therefore preferred over Kiss by 54% of voters, preferred over Wright by 56% of voters, over Smith by 60%, and over Simpson by 91% of voters.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.electionscience.org/library/irv-and-core-support/|title=IRV and Core Support|website=The Center for Election Science|language=en-US|access-date=2019-12-04}}</ref><ref name=":9">{{cite web|url=http://rangevoting.org/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|website=RangeVoting.org|access-date=2016-04-01}}</ref>

|2585

|-

|2063

|-

|Dan Smith (Independent)

|-

|James Simpson (Green)