View source for 2009 Burlington mayoral election

{{Wikipedia|2009 Burlington mayoral election}}

In March 2009, the city of [[w:Burlington,_Vermont|Burlington, Vermont]] held a mayoral election.  Progressive Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for Democrat Andy Montroll over Kiss.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web|url=http://scorevoting.net/Burlington.html|title=Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election|last=Gierzynski|first=Anthony|last2=Hamilton|first2=Wes|date=March 2009|website=RangeVoting.org|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=1 October 2017|quote=Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ...  voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved|last3=Smith|first3=Warren D.}}</ref><ref name=":8">{{Cite journal|last=Ornstein|first=Joseph T.|last2=Norman|first2=Robert Z.|date=2014-10-01|title=Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections|journal=Public Choice|language=en|volume=161|issue=1–2|pages=1–9|doi=10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2|issn=0048-5829|quote=Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Lewyn|first=Michael|date=2012|title=Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting|url=|journal=Phoenix L. Rev.|language=en|volume=6|page=117|pages=|ssrn=2276015|quote=election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'|via=}}</ref>  As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters [[w:Instant-runoff_voting_in_the_United_States#2010_Burlington_repeal|narrowly voted to repeal IRV]], reverting to their [[Runoff voting|prior system of holding a runoff]] if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote. 


== Infographic ==
[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.png|alt=visual depiction of pairwise results in 2009|thumb|388x388px|Source file: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]].  Original file history: https://wiki.electorama.com/wiki/File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg#filehistory]]
{{hashtag|hashtag=Visual depiction of IRV results}}

To the right is an infographic which attempts to clearly depict the pairwise results in a tidy SVG diagram.  Well, actually, it's a scaled down PNG, so it's a little hard to read.  If you click it. it'll expand.

Here is a link to the [[SVG]] version in a few different forms:

* File link on this wiki (as of 00:18, 21 July 2020 (UTC)): 
** [[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]
*** Note: ^This link may turn into something enormous, because the SVG has a pretty big svg width and height (width="765" height="990")  [[User:RobLa]] made it with Inkscape ''years'' ago, and [[User:Psephomancy]] uploaded it to [[electowiki]] in 2018 (and didn't ''strictly'' follow the terms of the CC by-sa license, but ''hopefully'' [[User:RobLa]] won't file a copyright infringement suit <code>;-)</code>)
* Static link (as of 00:18, 21 July 2020 (UTC)): 
** https://static.miraheze.org/electowikiwiki/9/90/Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg
*** Note: ^This may or may not work in some browsers, but it works pretty well in [[Mozilla Firefox]].
* Static PNG:
** (fill me in)

==Further analysis==

*[http://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html Brian Olson's analysis of the election]

==Pairwise results==

This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009.

Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages:

*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Kiss Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Bob Kiss (P) voters]]
*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Montroll Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Andy Montroll (D) voters]]
*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Smith Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters]]
*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Wright Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters]]

==Results with Copeland and First-Past-the-Post==

Below are the theoretical results of using different mechanisms other than IRV.

2009 Burlington mayoral election

*Election Format Version: 0.1
*Candidates:
**Bob Kiss (Progressive)
**Andy Montroll (Democrat)
**Dan Smith (Independent)
**James Simpson (Green)
**Write-in
**Kurt Wright (Republican)

==Ballots==

Total votes: 8980

(see [[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data]] for the raw ballots used to generate the results below).

==Results==

===Copeland method===

The winner using the [[Copeland method]] is '''Montroll'''

====Detailed Results====

In Copeland, the candidate which beats all other candidates in pairwise matchups wins the election. In the event no such candidate exists, the candidate with the best win-loss-tie record wins the election.

Voting results of pairwise matchups:

{|
| width="33%" |
'''Bob Kiss (Progressive)'''
{|
|'''Loss'''
|3477
|to
|4067
|vs. Montroll
|-
|'''Win'''
|3946
|to
|3577
|vs. Smith
|-
|'''Win'''
|5517
|to
|845
|vs. Simpson
|-
|'''Win'''
|6149
|to
|116
|vs. Write-in
|-
|'''Win'''
|4314
|to
|4064
|vs. Wright
|}
| width="33%" |
'''Andy Montroll (Democrat)'''
{|
|'''Win'''
|4067
|to
|3477
|vs. Kiss
|-
|

|

|

|

|

|-
|'''Win'''
|4573
|to
|2998
|vs. Smith
|-
|'''Win'''
|6267
|to
|591
|vs. Simpson
|-
|'''Win'''
|6658
|to
|104
|vs. Write-in
|-
|'''Win'''
|4597
|to
|3668
|vs. Wright
|}
| width="33%" |
'''Dan Smith (Independent)'''
{|
|'''Loss'''
|3577
|to
|3946
|vs. Kiss
|-
|'''Loss'''
|2998
|to
|4573
|vs. Montroll
|-
|

|

|

|

|

|-
|'''Win'''
|5573
|to
|721
|vs. Simpson
|-
|'''Win'''
|6057
|to
|117
|vs. Write-in
|-
|'''Loss'''
|3793
|to
|3975
|vs. Wright
|}
|-
|
'''James Simpson (Green)'''
{|
|'''Loss'''
|845
|to
|5517
|vs. Kiss
|-
|'''Loss'''
|591
|to
|6267
|vs. Montroll
|-
|'''Loss'''
|721
|to
|5573
|vs. Smith
|-
|

|

|

|

|

|-
|'''Win'''
|3338
|to
|165
|vs. Write-in
|-
|'''Loss'''
|1309
|to
|5274
|vs. Wright
|}
|
'''Write-in'''
{|
|'''Loss'''
|116
|to
|6149
|vs. Kiss
|-
|'''Loss'''
|104
|to
|6658
|vs. Montroll
|-
|'''Loss'''
|117
|to
|6057
|vs. Smith
|-
|'''Loss'''
|165
|to
|3338
|vs. Simpson
|-
|

|

|

|

|

|-
|'''Loss'''
|163
|to
|6063
|vs. Wright
|}
|
'''Kurt Wright (Republican)'''
{|
|'''Loss'''
|4064
|to
|4314
|vs. Kiss
|-
|'''Loss'''
|3668
|to
|4597
|vs. Montroll
|-
|'''Win'''
|3975
|to
|3793
|vs. Smith
|-
|'''Win'''
|5274
|to
|1309
|vs. Simpson
|-
|'''Win'''
|6063
|to
|163
|vs. Write-in
|-
|

|

|

|

|

|}
|}

Win-Loss-Ties:

*Montroll: 5-0-0
*Kiss: 4-1-0
*Wright: 3-2-0
*Smith: 2-3-0
*Simpson: 1-4-0
*Write-in: 0-5-0

===Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post)===

The winner using the [[Plurality]] is '''Wright'''.

====Detailed Results====

The results below were calculated using [[Plurality]] (a.k.a. First Past the Post). When using ballots that allow for ratings, the top rated candidate is chosen. If there is more than one candidate with the highest rating, the ballot is considered invalid and is not counted.

Votes:

{|
!

!Total Score
|-
|Bob Kiss (Progressive)
|2585
|-
|Andy Montroll (Democrat)
|2063
|-
|Dan Smith (Independent)
|1306
|-
|James Simpson (Green)
|35
|-
|Write-in
|36
|-
|Kurt Wright (Republican)
|2951
|}

== Footnotes ==
<references />

[[Category:IRV elections]]
[[Category:Vermont]]