2015 Republican Liberty Caucus straw poll: Difference between revisions
2015 Republican Liberty Caucus straw poll (view source)
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In 2015, the Center for Election Science (CES) handled the Republican Liberty Caucus straw poll, using three different voting methods: [[First Past the Post electoral system|Plurality voting]], [[Approval voting]], [[Score voting]] (0-5).<ref>{{Cite web|title=CES Conducts the Republican Liberty Caucus Straw Poll|url=https://electology.org/blog/ces-conducts-republican-liberty-caucus-straw-poll|website=The Center for Election Science|date=2015-10-14|access-date=2018-12-16|language=en}}</ref> There were 779 voters and all voters used all three voting methods. The Republican Liberty Caucus chose the
== Results ==
There were 16 candidates on the ballot, with 2 slots for write-ins. (Write-ins are shown in italics in the chart below.)
Under all three voting systems, Rand Paul was the winner, with Ted Cruz in second place. Under Plurality, satirical write-in candidate [https://honestgil.com/ Gil Fulbright] came in third, but he was much lower in the Approval and Score rankings.
Several of the candidates who got low scores in the Plurality election received significantly higher scores in the Approval and Score elections.
One voter wrote-in Hillary Clinton, with a score of zero, putting her in last place under all voting systems.
Raw score totals:
{| class="wikitable sortable"
!Candidate
!Plurality
!Approval
!Score
|-
|'''Rand Paul'''
|403
|445
|2438
|-
|'''Ted Cruz'''
|342
|399
|2129
|-
|'''Ben Carson'''
|2
|139
|1075
|-
|'''Carly Fiorina'''
|6
|79
|819
|-
|'''Marco Rubio'''
|2
|75
|703
|-
|'''Donald Trump'''
|9
|54
|573
|-
|'''Bobby Jindal'''
|0
|51
|678
|-
|'''Rick Santorum'''
|0
|26
|447
|-
|'''Mike Huckabee'''
|0
|25
|422
|-
|'''John Kasich'''
|0
|17
|340
|-
|'''Chris Christie'''
|0
|14
|309
|-
|''Gil Fulbright''
|11
|12
|50
|-
|'''Jeb Bush'''
|1
|9
|240
|-
|'''George Pataki'''
|0
|6
|220
|-
|'''Lindsey Graham'''
|0
|4
|156
|-
|'''Jim Gilmore'''
|0
|3
|221
|-
|''Vermin Supreme''
|0
|3
|14
|-
|'''Mark Everson'''
|0
|2
|180
|-
|''Heather Wagenhals''
|0
|2
|10
|-
|''Paul Jacob''
|0
|1
|5
|-
|''Ron Paul''
|0
|1
|5
|-
|''Mitt Romney''
|0
|1
|4
|-
|''Ben Shapiro''
|0
|1
|4
|-
|''Hillary Clinton''
|0
|0
|0
|}<!--{{Graph:Chart|width=900|height=400
|xAxisTitle=Candidate|yAxisTitle=Votes (% of possible)|legend=Legend|type=rect
|y1Title=Plurality
|y2Title=Approval
|y3Title=Score
|x= RaP, TC, GF, DT, CF, BC, MaR, JB, BJ, RS, MH, JK, CC, JG, GP, ME, LG, VS, HW, PJ, RoP, MiR, BS, HC
|y1=51.7, 43.9, 1.4, 1.2, 0.8, 0.3, 0.3, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
|y2=57.1, 51.2, 1.5, 6.9, 10.1, 17.8, 9.6, 1.2, 6.5, 3.3, 3.2, 2.2, 1.8, 0.4, 0.8, 0.3, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0
|y3=62.6, 54.7, 1.3, 14.7, 21.0, 27.6, 18.0, 6.2, 17.4, 11.5, 10.8, 8.7, 7.9, 5.7, 5.6, 4.6, 4.0, 0.4, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0
}}--><br />[[File:2015 RLC totals.svg|800x800px]]
== Analysis ==
The raw ballots were published by CES, making it possible to analyze voter behavior.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://results.electology.org/RLC2015/RLCNC_2015_StrawPoll.csv|website=results.electology.org|access-date=2018-12-16|title=RLCNC_2015_StrawPoll.csv|date=|last=|first=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=}}</ref>
Every voter approved of at least one candidate, though 3 (0.4%) did not vote in the plurality election, and 10 (1.3%) did not score any candidate.
=== Approval election ===
<!--{{Graph:Chart|width=600|height=300
|xAxisTitle=Number of candidates approved|yAxisTitle=Voters (%)|type=rect|showValues=format:.1r
|x=1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
|y=69.70, 9.88, 7.83, 6.03, 3.59, 1.80, 0.39, 0.39, 0.26, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.13
|colors=#ff7f0e
}}-->[[File:2015 RLC approvals per ballot.svg]]
* There were 1.8 approvals per ballot on average, with a maximum of 14 on one ballot.
* 70% of voters [[W:Bullet voting|bullet-voted]] for only one candidate
=== Score election ===
The most common behavior was to bullet-vote for only one candidate, leaving the rest blank, while the second most common behavior was to score every candidate on the ballot (not including write-ins):
<!--{{Graph:Chart|width=600|height=200
|xAxisTitle=Number of candidates rated|yAxisTitle=Voters (%)|type=rect|showValues=format:.2r
|x=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
|y=1.28, 44.03, 4.11, 3.72, 2.82, 2.05, 2.31, 0.51, 0.77, 0.9, 0.13, 0.64, 0.77, 1.41, 2.57, 5.65, 25.55, 0.77
|colors=#2ca02c
}}-->
[[File:2015 RLC ratings per ballot.svg]]Explicit scores were distributed somewhat evenly, but blanks dominated the distribution, especially when blanks for write-ins (which are inevitable) are included:
<!--{{Graph:Chart|width=400|height=200
|xAxisTitle=Scores|yAxisTitle=Ballots (%)|type=rect|showValues=format:.2r
|x=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
|y=29.42, 19.46, 11.75, 12.69, 10.53, 16.16
|colors=#2ca02c
}}-->
[[File:2015 RLC score distribution.svg]]
<!--{{Graph:Chart|width=400|height=200
|xAxisTitle=Scores|yAxisTitle=Ballots (%)|legend=Legend|type=stackedrect
|x= 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
|y3= 8.52, 5.64, 3.40, 3.67, 3.05, 4.68
|y2= 37.81, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
|y1= 33.23, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
|y3Title=Explicit votes
|y2Title=Blanks
|y1Title=Blanks (write-ins)
|colors=#7f7f7f, #8c564b, #2ca02c
}}-->
[[File:2015 RLC score distribution with blanks.svg]]
* 44% of voters bullet-voted for only candidate
* 26% of voters rated all 16 candidates on the ballot
*39% of voters explicitly used the full range of scores available
*4% of voters explicitly min/max voted (Approval-style votes, where all candidates get either maximum or minimum scores).
*50% of voters implicitly min/max voted (giving maximum scores to one or more candidates and leaving the rest blank)
==References==
<references group=""></references
== External links ==
* https://www.rangevoting.org/RLCstrawPoll2015.html<br />
[[Category:Score voting elections]]
[[Category:Approval voting elections]]
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