2012 Occupy Wall Street polls: Difference between revisions
add graphs for pilot
Psephomancy (talk | contribs) ((I meant exit poll) Add refs) |
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In 2012, the Politics and Electoral Reform Working Group of [[W:Occupy Wall Street|Occupy Wall Street]] conducted experimental surveys in New York City to investigate how voters behave under four different voting methods: [[First Past the Post electoral system|Plurality voting]], [[Approval voting]], [[Score voting]] (0-5), and [[Instant-runoff voting|Instant-Runoff Voting]] (with
== Preliminary pilot study ==
They first polled 316 people at Occupy protest sites and events around Manhattan, in the spring of 2012, to test the software and people's reactions.<ref name=":1" /> In this poll, voters selected a candidate under Plurality voting, and then were randomly assigned two of the other voting systems.<ref name=":2">{{Cite web|url=https://electology.org/sites/default/files/Full%20Report.pdf|title=Make Voting Count: an Experiment in Alternative Voting Methods|date=March 2013|access-date=|website=|last=|first=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|publisher=Politics and Electoral Reform Working Group}}</ref>
The poll asked "If this year's elections were held today, what party's candidates would you favor?" with this list of candidates:<ref name=":2" />
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* Socialist Party
* A write-in option
No adjustment was made to correct for the unrepresentativeness of the voters; who were primarily OWS participants;<ref name=":2" /> it was just to compare voting behavior under different systems.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news|title=Podcast 2012-08-20: Interview with Occupy Wall Street’s TJ Frawls on Electoral System Pilot Poll|url=https://electology.org/podcasts/2012-08-20_tj_rawls|work=The Center for Election Science|date=2015-05-25|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en}}</ref>
The Democratic Party won the plurality election by a small margin, with a total of 35% of the votes. The Green Party won under the other 3 methods.
Support for third parties was much higher under the cardinal systems compared to Plurality, moving the Democratic party down to 4th place:<ref name=":2" />
{{Graph:Chart|width=600|height=400
|xAxisTitle=Candidate|yAxisTitle=Votes (% of possible)|legend=Legend|type=rect
|y1Title=Plurality
|y2Title=Approval
|y3Title=Score
|x=Democratic, Green, Independent, Socialist, Libertarian, Republican, Write-in
|y1=34.80, 23.10, 16.50, 7.60, 3.16, 2.53, 12.34
|y2=48.07, 74.00, 72.10, 60.57, 27.88, 4.33, 10.58
|y3=51.01, 68.88, 59.90, 58.51, 34.17, 12.31, 11.2
}}
{{Graph:Chart|width=600|height=400
|xAxisTitle=Candidate|yAxisTitle=Votes (% of possible)|legend=Legend|type=rect
|y1Title=Plurality
|y2Title=IRV (first preferences)
|x=Democratic, Green, Independent, Socialist, Libertarian, Republican, Write-in
|y1=34.80, 23.10, 16.50, 7.60, 3.16, 2.53, 12.34
|y2=31.25, 26.92, 17.78, 11.53, 2.88, 0.01, 8.17
}}
Since no one obtained a majority in the first round, the IRV election proceeded through 13 elimination rounds to find a winner, which was the Green Party. <!-- Though I'm skeptical that they did this correctly; see talk page. -->
The
== Exit poll ==
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* Write-in option
No adjustment was made to correct for the unrepresentativeness of the district, though polling only took place in a single district, so that the poll's plurality results could be compared with the results of the actual plurality election in that district. The plurality results were similar for both:<ref name=":1" /><ref name=":2" />
{{Graph:Chart|width=600|height=400
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|y2=85.01, 8.28, 3.16, 1.78, 0.99, 0.39, 0.20,
}}
Obama easily won under all 4 voting systems, though Approval and Score showed that there was much higher support for third parties than traditional plurality elections would imply. Romney's position in the overall ranking dropped from second place to last place under the cardinal systems:<ref name=":2" />
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}}
▲Obama won the IRV election without any elimination rounds necessary. The first preferences for the IRV election were similar to the plurality election:<ref name=":2" />
The first preferences for the IRV election were similar to the plurality election. Obama won the IRV election without any elimination rounds necessary, so second and third preferences (which favored the Green Party) were ignored:<ref name=":2" />
{{Graph:Chart|width=600|height=400
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|y2=83.8, 8.5, 3.9, 1.4, 1.2, 1.2, 0.2
}}
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