Condorcet winner criterion: Difference between revisions

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[[Approval voting]], [[Range voting]], [[Borda count]], [[plurality voting]], and [[instant-runoff voting]] do not comply with the Condorcet Criterion. However, any voting method that collects enough information to detect pairwise preferences (i.e. scoring or ranking methods) can be "forced" to comply with the Condorcet criterion by automatically electing the Condorcet winner if one exists (or alternatively, eliminating all candidates not in the Smith Set) before doing anything else.
 
== Occurrences in real elections ==
 
Most real elections have a Condorcet winner. Andrew Myers, who operates the [[online poll|Condorcet Internet Voting Service]], found that 83% of the nonpolitical CIVS elections with at least 10 votes had a Condorcet winner, with the figure rising to 98.8% for elections with at least 300 votes.<ref name="CIVS">{{cite conference |url=https://www.cs.cornell.edu/andru/papers/civs24/ |title=The Frequency of Condorcet Winners in Real Non-Political Elections |last=Myers |first=A. C. |author-link=https://www.cs.cornell.edu/andru/ |date=March 2024 |conference=61st Public Choice Society Conference}}</ref>
 
A database of 189 ranked United States election from 2004 to 2022 contained only one Condorcet cycle: the [[2021 Minneapolis Ward 2 city council election]].<ref name="GSM2023">{{cite arXiv | last=Graham-Squire | first=Adam | last2=McCune | first2=David | title=An Examination of Ranked Choice Voting in the United States, 2004-2022 |eprint=2301.12075v2 | date=2023-01-28 | class=econ.GN}}</ref> While this indicates a very high rate of Condorcet winners, it's possible that some of the effect is due to general [[two-party domination]].
 
==Commentary==
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===Equilibrium point for various voting methods===
The Condorcet[[Bipartisan set]] (a subset of the winner/[[Smith set]]) is athe common [[equilibrium]] point inof manymost voting methods. This is because a majority/plurality of voters have no incentive to deviate towards another candidate. The Condorcet criterion can thus be considered a type of [[Declared strategy voting|automatic strategy]], which reduces the need for [[compromising]] strategy by electing candidates who could have won with majority-strength compromising.
 
An example for [[Approval voting]]:
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31: C>B|>A
 
B is the CW. If voters approve everyone they ranked before the "|", then B is approved by all voters, and wins. If any of the three groups of voters here raises their approval threshold (only approves their 1st choice), then another group has an incentive to maintain their approval threshold where it is i.e. if C-top voters stop approving B, then the 69 voters who prefer B>C have an incentive to move their approval thresholds between B and C to ensure B is approved by a majority and C is not. Note that this requires both accurate polling and coordinated [[Strategic voting|strategic voting]].
 
===Non-complying methods===
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In this case, B is preferred to A by 501 votes to 499, and B is
preferred to C by 502 to 498, hence B is preferred to both A and C. So according to the Condorcet criteria, B should win. By contrast, according to the rules of IRV, B is ranked first by the fewest voters and is eliminated, and C wins with the transferred voted from B; in plurality voting A wins with the most first choices. Note that B and C are a [[Mutual majority criterion|mutual majority]], so most majority rule-based methods would rule A out of winning. If A drops out, then B becomes the majority's 1st choice; so this is an example of IRV failing [[Independence of irrelevant alternatives|independence of irrelevant alternatives]].
preferred to C by 502 to 498, hence B is preferred to both A and C. So
according to the Condorcet criteria, B should win. By contrast, according to the rules of IRV, B is ranked first by the fewest voters and is eliminated, and C wins with the transferred voted from B; in plurality voting A wins with the most first choices. Note that B and C are a [[Mutual majority criterion|mutual majority]], so most majority rule-based methods would rule A out of winning. If A drops out, then B becomes the majority's 1st choice; so this is an example of IRV failing [[Independence of irrelevant alternatives|independence of irrelevant alternatives]].
 
See [[Score voting#Majority-related criteria]] to see how Score can fail the Condorcet criterion. In general however, it is expected that the Condorcet winner (and Smith Set candidates in general) will almost alwaysusually be very high-utility, wheneven comparedif they are not the highest-utility tocandidate (the utilitarian winner).
 
===Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives===
Note that the Condorcet criterion also implies the following criterion which is somewhat related to Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives: removing losing candidates can't change the result of an election if there is a Condorcet winner. <ref name="Schulze 2018 with footnote">https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.02973{{cite arXiv | last=Schulze | first=Markus | title=The Schulze Method of Voting p| date=2018-03-15 | eprint=1804.02973 |page=351|class=cs.GT}} "The Condorcet criterion for single-winner elections (section 4.7) is important because, when there is a Condorcet winner b ∈ A, then it is still a Condorcet winner when alternatives a1,...,an ∈ A \ {b} are removed. So an alternative b ∈ A doesn’t owe his property of being a Condorcet winner to the presence of some other alternatives. Therefore, when we declare a Condorcet winner b ∈ A elected whenever a Condorcet winner exists, we know that no other alternatives a1,...,an ∈ A \ {b} have changed the result of the election without being elected."</ref> In addition, adding candidates who are pairwise beaten by the Condorcet winner (when one exists) can't change the result of the election.
 
===Weak Condorcet winners===
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3 B1(>A)</blockquote>Now both of A and B1 are weak CWs, because they both pairwise tie each other. In this particular example, since there is nothing that distinguishes either candidate from the other, the neutrality criterion requires that both A and B1 must have an equal probability of winning i.e. both must have a 50% chance. This means that removing clones of B1 increased B1's chances of winning (which were originally at 0%, since A was guaranteed to win earlier i.e. had a 100% chance of winning.) <ref name="Schulze 2018 p206">https://arxiv.org/abs/{{cite arXiv | last=Schulze | first=Markus | title=The Schulze Method of Voting | date=2018-03-15 | eprint=1804.02973v602973 p|page=206–207|class=cs. 206-207GT}}</ref>
 
Weak CWs have also been called Condorcet non-losers, with the requirement that they always win when they exist being called Exclusive-Condorcet. <ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.votingmatters.org.uk/ISSUE3/P5.HTM#r2|title=Voting matters, Issue 3: pp 8-15|last=|first=|date=|website=www.votingmatters.org.uk|url-status=live|archive-url=|archive-date=|access-date=2020-05-09|quote=Exclusive-Condorcet (see Fishburn[2]). If there is a Condorcet non-loser, then at least one Condorcet non-loser should be elected.}}</ref>
 
==Multi-winner generalizations==
Schulze has proposed a generalization of the Condorcet criterion for multi-winner methods:<ref name="Schulze 2018">{{cite webarXiv | last=Schulze | first=Markus | title=The Schulze Method of Voting | website=arXiv.org | date=2018-03-15 | urleprint=https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.02973v602973 | access-datepage=2020-02-11351|pageclass=351cs.GT}}</ref> Suppose all but M+1 candidates are eliminated from the ballots, and the remaining candidates include candidate ''b''. If ''b'' is always a winner when electing M winners from the M+1 remaining candidates, no matter who the other M remaining candidates are, then ''b'' is an M-seat Condorcet winner.
 
A method passes the M-seat Condorcet criterion if its M-seat election outcome always contains such a ''b'' when he exists, and passes the multi-winner Condorcet criterion if it passes the M-seat Condorcet criterion for all M.
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Note that Bloc Ranked Pairs and Bloc Score voting (if scored methods are considered) would pass this criterion, though they are not proportional, and the latter is not a Condorcet method in the single-winner case. So it may make more sense to consider Schulze's criterion as one of several that a multi-winner method ought to pass to be considered a Condorcet multi-winner or Condorcet PR method, rather than the definitive one.
 
In addition to Schulze's generalization, Gehrein, and Aziz ''et al.'' have proposed different multi-winner generalizations, based on the concept of stability.<ref name="Aziz">{{cite arXiv | last1=Aziz | first1=Haris | last2=Elkind | first2=Edith | last3=Faliszewski | first3=Piotr | last4=Lackner | first4=Martin | last5=Skowron | first5=Piotr | title=The Condorcet Principle for Multiwinner Elections: From Shortlisting to Proportionality | date=2017-01-27 | eprint=1701.08023 | class=cs.GT}}</ref>
See also https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.08023.
 
==Abstract Condorcet Criterion==
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===Alternative definitions===
The [[tied at the top]] rule redefines the Condorcet beat relation so that methods using it can pass Condorcet whenever there are no equal-rank, and in addition passes the [[favorite betrayal criterion]]. Doing so in effect trades some Condorcet winner compliance for FBC compliance.
'''Alternative definition of "beat" that is claimed to be more consistent with the preferences, intent and wishes of equal-top-ranking voters:'''
 
(Argument supporting that claim can be found at the [[Symmetrical ICT]] article.)
 
{{definition|1=
 
(X>Y) means the number of ballots voting X over Y.
 
(Y>X) means the number of ballots voting Y over X.
 
(X=Y)T means the number of ballots voting X and Y at top
 
(a ballot votes a candidate at top if it doesn't vote anyone over him/her)
 
X beats Y iff (X>Y) > (Y>X) + (X=Y)T
 
}}
 
With this alternative definition of "beat", [[FBC]] and the Condorcet Criterion are compatible.
 
It has been recently argued that the definition of the verb "beat" should be regarded as external to the Condorcet Criterion...and that "beat should be defined in a way that interprets equal-top ranking consistent with the actual preferences, intent and wishes of the equal-top-ranking voters. When such a definition of "beat" is used in the Condorcet Criterion definition, then the Condorcet Criterion is compatible with [[FBC]], and there are Condorcet methods that pass [[FBC]]. Discussion and arguments on that matter can be found at the [[Symmetrical ICT]] article.
[[Category:Voting system criteria]]
 
==Outside of voting theory==
Analogues to the Condorcet criterion have been proposed in non-voting contexts; it appears in many places when discussing how to aggregate ranked information. It has been used to discuss search engine rankings <ref name="Dwork Kumar Naor Sivakumar 2001 p. ">{{Citecite conference web|url last=http://www10.org/cdrom/papers/577/Dwork |title first=RankCynthia Aggregation| Methodslast2=Kumar for| thefirst2=Ravi Web|last last3=Naor |first first3=Moni |date last4=Sivakumar |website first4=D. |url-status title=liveRank aggregation methods for the Web |archive-url publisher=ACM |archive publication-dateplace=New York, NY, USA |access-date year=}}</ref>2001 and| metasearchdoi=10.1145/371920.372165 <ref>{{Cite| web|url=http://www.ccseecs.neuharvard.edu/home~michaelm/jaaCS222/IS4200.10X1/resources/condorcetrank.pdf|title}}</ref> and metasearch<ref name=Condorcet"Montague FusionAslam for2002 Improvedp. ">{{cite conference Retrieval| last=Montague | first=Mark |date last2=Aslam |website first2=Javed A. |url-status title=liveCondorcet fusion for improved retrieval |archive-url publisher=ACM |archive publication-dateplace=New York, NY, USA |access- date=2002-11-04 | doi=10.1145/584792.584881 | url=http://www.ccs.neu.edu/home/jaa/IS4200.10X1/resources/condorcet.pdf}}</ref>. The concept of a [[Smith set ranking]] (which is sometimes referred to as the "extended/generalised Condorcet criterion") helps structure how the ranking of all options should be, rather than only the winner.
 
==References==