Instant-runoff voting: Difference between revisions

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Also consider batch elimination: if some batch of candidates can be eliminated that collectively have fewer votes than some other candidate. Example vote totals: 30 A 19 B 5 C 4 D 6 E. Because C, D, and E's collective 15 votes can't overtake B's 19 votes, all 3 can be eliminated at once without changing the result.
Also consider batch elimination: if some batch of candidates can be eliminated that collectively have fewer votes than some other candidate. Example vote totals: 30 A 19 B 5 C 4 D 6 E. Because C, D, and E's collective 15 votes can't overtake B's 19 votes, all 3 can be eliminated at once without changing the result.


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=== Variants ===
See the [[Equal-ranking methods in IRV]] article. IRV can be done with equal ranking allowed. The two main ways of doing this are either fractional (split the voter's ballot equally between all of their highest-ranked candidates that are ranked equally (3 candidates ranked 1st each get 1/3rd of a vote)), or whole votes (give each highest-equally-ranked candidate one vote (3 candidates get 1 vote each and 3 votes total)).

With whole votes equal-ranking, there are two ways to find a winner (which give the same result in standard IRV but differ for whole votes): either eliminate candidates until only two remain, and declare the one with more votes the winner, or eliminate candidates until one or more candidates are supported by a majority of active ballots, and then elect the candidate with the largest majority. Some have argued<ref>[https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/e6bt6s/proportionality_failure_in_stv_with_equalranks/f9s5yno/?context=3]</ref> that in order to limit opportunities for pushover strategy with whole votes, a ballot that equally ranks candidates should be allowed to help those candidates win, but not prevent those candidates from getting eliminated.


== Where IRV is used ==
== Where IRV is used ==
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Federal elections are conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission, who employ all the workers at all the booths, to a common standard of neutrality and efficiency. Candidates may appoint scrutineers to watch (but not touch) what is going on.
Federal elections are conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission, who employ all the workers at all the booths, to a common standard of neutrality and efficiency. Candidates may appoint scrutineers to watch (but not touch) what is going on.

== Criticisms ==
Though IRV is often praised for passing [[later-no-harm]], which is claimed to encourage voters to rank all of their preferences, it doesn't tend to use as much of the information provided by the voters as other ranked methods, such as [[Condorcet methods]]. This is a less extreme analog to how [[First Past the Post electoral system|first past the post]] technically passes [[later-no-harm]] by ignoring later preferences altogether. So IRV's [[later-no-harm]] compliance has to be evaluated in context of the other criteria it fails due to using less information than other methods - that is, there may be ambiguity to how much IRV is truly protecting a voter's interests by not using their later-preference information at all.

From this perspective, the main criticism of IRV is essentially that, while it does avoid treating the candidate FPTP considers best as being best, it determines who the worst candidate is using 1st choices. In so doing, it uses [[first past the post]] to determine who to eliminate, and ignores most of the voter's ballot each round. This ignoring of most of the ballot is what gives IRV its [[later-no-help]] and [[later-no-harm]] properties, but also leads to its vulnerability to [[center squeeze]] and [[Favorite Betrayal]] (since, if you make 1st choices matter much more than other choices, then this can require voters to lie about who their 1st choice is to get the best outcome).

In contrast, [[Nanson's method]] is a method that ''does'' examine the whole ballot for each voter for each round , and whose logic is otherwise the same as IRV. It passes [[Condorcet criterion|Condorcet]] but fails both [[later-no-help]] and [[later-no-harm]]. Both Nanson and IRV are nonmonotone, so the lack of monotonicity can't be attributed to IRV not looking at the whole ballot.


== Notes ==
== Notes ==
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In normal [[runoff voting]], D and E are the two candidates with the most votes, preventing the majority's preferred candidates from entering the runoff. In FPTP, D has the most votes. But with IRV, first C is eliminated, and then E, and then B, resulting in A having 51 votes and winning. Note that though the 49 voter-minority preferred B to A, B didn't win; this is an example of IRV ignoring voter preferences in a way that can lead to some majorities (when looking at [[Head-to-head matchup|head-to-head matchups]]) having less power. However, the majority still got a better result than it would've had in some other methods.
In normal [[runoff voting]], D and E are the two candidates with the most votes, preventing the majority's preferred candidates from entering the runoff. In FPTP, D has the most votes. But with IRV, first C is eliminated, and then E, and then B, resulting in A having 51 votes and winning. Note that though the 49 voter-minority preferred B to A, B didn't win; this is an example of IRV ignoring voter preferences in a way that can lead to some majorities (when looking at [[Head-to-head matchup|head-to-head matchups]]) having less power. However, the majority still got a better result than it would've had in some other methods.


IRV is equivalent to [[runoff voting]] (supposing no change in preferences) when there are 3 or fewer candidates. This is used to argue both for and against it; advocates claim it is cheaper and easier for the voters to vote once, while opponents argue that a delayed runoff actually gives voters a second look into the candidates in the runoff, potentially improving the quality of their decision-making, and that because ranking candidates is harder than picking one candidate, that runoff voting is actually easier for voters. Note that though IRV is called instant runoff, this is more because it elects a candidate who could win or tie a runoff ([[pairwise beat]] or tie) against at least one other candidate, rather than because it is equivalent to runoff voting in all cases.
IRV is equivalent to [[runoff voting]] (supposing no change in preferences) when there are 3 or fewer candidates. This is used to argue both for and against it; advocates claim it is cheaper and easier for the voters to vote once, while opponents argue that a delayed runoff actually gives voters a second look into the candidates in the runoff, potentially improving the quality of their decision-making, and that because ranking candidates is harder than picking one candidate, that runoff voting is actually easier for voters. Note that though IRV is called instant runoff, this is more because it elects a candidate who could win or tie a runoff ([[pairwise beat]] or tie) against at least one other candidate, rather than because it is equivalent to runoff voting in all cases.

One simple way to modify IRV to address many of the issues IRV opponents have without changing IRV fundamentally is to allow voters to approve candidates (using an [[approval threshold]]). If there are any majority-approved candidates, elect the most-approved of them, otherwise run IRV. Even if voters [[Favorite Betrayal|Favorite Betray]], they can still approve their honest favorite, giving that candidate a chance to still win. In addition, this allows voters to better avert the [[center squeeze effect]]. The standard argument made by IRV advocates against [[Approval voting]], that it fails [[later-no-harm]], has little to no relevance to this modification, since voters seeking to avoid hurting their favorite candidates' chances of winning in the approval round can simply refrain from approving anyone, forcing the election to run under IRV rules.

Though IRV is often praised for passing [[later-no-harm]], which is claimed to encourage voters to rank all of their preferences, it doesn't tend to use as much of the information provided by the voters as other ranked methods, such as [[Condorcet methods]]. This is a less extreme analog to how [[First Past the Post electoral system|first past the post]] technically passes [[later-no-harm]] by ignoring later preferences altogether. So IRV's [[later-no-harm]] compliance has to be evaluated in context of the other criteria it fails due to using less information than other methods - that is, there may be ambiguity to how much IRV is truly protecting a voter's interests by not using their later-preference information at all.


IRV always elects a Condorcet winner who receives over [[Dominant mutual third|1/3rd]] of 1st choice votes. More generally, a candidate who at any point when they are uneliminated receives over 1/3rd of all active votes and [[Pairwise counting|pairwise beats]] (is preferred by more voters than) all other uneliminated candidates is guaranteed to win. This is because when all but two candidates are eliminated, the one preferred by more voters is guaranteed to win in IRV, and a candidate with over 1/3rd of active votes is guaranteed to be one of the final two remaining candidates, because at most only one other candidate can get more active votes than the over-1/3rd pairwise victor.
IRV always elects a Condorcet winner who receives over [[Dominant mutual third|1/3rd]] of 1st choice votes. More generally, a candidate who at any point when they are uneliminated receives over 1/3rd of all active votes and [[Pairwise counting|pairwise beats]] (is preferred by more voters than) all other uneliminated candidates is guaranteed to win. This is because when all but two candidates are eliminated, the one preferred by more voters is guaranteed to win in IRV, and a candidate with over 1/3rd of active votes is guaranteed to be one of the final two remaining candidates, because at most only one other candidate can get more active votes than the over-1/3rd pairwise victor.
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If you elect a candidate the moment they have a majority, C would win, making the strategy backfire. But if you keep eliminating until you have only two candidates, then B is eliminated first, and then A wins with 80 votes.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/f7daa0/key_details_emerge_for_how_rankedchoice_in_nyc/fib0pgd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x</ref></blockquote>
If you elect a candidate the moment they have a majority, C would win, making the strategy backfire. But if you keep eliminating until you have only two candidates, then B is eliminated first, and then A wins with 80 votes.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/f7daa0/key_details_emerge_for_how_rankedchoice_in_nyc/fib0pgd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x</ref></blockquote>


From this perspective, the main criticism of IRV is essentially that it determines who the worst candidate is using 1st choices. In so doing, it uses [[first past the post]] to determine who to eliminate, and ignores most of the voter's ballot each round. This ignoring of most of the ballot is what gives IRV its [[later-no-help]] and [[later-no-harm]] properties, but also leads to its vulnerability to [[center squeeze]].

In contrast, [[Nanson's method]] is a method that ''does'' examine the whole ballot for each voter for each round , and whose logic is otherwise the same as IRV. It passes [[Condorcet criterion|Condorcet]] but fails both [[later-no-help]] and [[later-no-harm]]. Both Nanson and IRV are nonmonotone, so the lack of monotonicity can't be attributed to IRV not looking at the whole ballot.


Several variations of IRV have been proposed to meet the [[Condorcet]] and [[Smith criterion|Smith]] criteria. The simplest of these are to either (elect the [[Condorcet winner]] if one exists), or (eliminate all candidates not in the [[Smith//IRV|Smith set]]), and then run IRV.
Several variations of IRV have been proposed to meet the [[Condorcet]] and [[Smith criterion|Smith]] criteria. The simplest of these are to either (elect the [[Condorcet winner]] if one exists), or (eliminate all candidates not in the [[Smith//IRV|Smith set]]), and then run IRV.
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There are two ways to make a diagram detailing an IRV result. The first is generally to create a [[W:Sankey diagram|Sankey diagram]] showing votes transferring, at least until some candidate has a majority of active votes. The other is to show a flow diagram where, for either of the two candidates with the most votes in a round, it is shown whether they have over 1/3rd of the active votes, and how many of the other uneliminated candidates they pairwise beat.
There are two ways to make a diagram detailing an IRV result. The first is generally to create a [[W:Sankey diagram|Sankey diagram]] showing votes transferring, at least until some candidate has a majority of active votes. The other is to show a flow diagram where, for either of the two candidates with the most votes in a round, it is shown whether they have over 1/3rd of the active votes, and how many of the other uneliminated candidates they pairwise beat.


Note that when the top candidate doesn't have a majority, but the top two candidates each have over 1/3rd of the active votes (i.e. they combinedly have over 2/3rds), they are guaranteed to be the two final remaining candidates in IRV, so all other candidates can be eliminated (or equivalently, the pairwise matchup between the two can be tallied) to find the result.
Note that when the top candidate doesn't have a majority, but the top two candidates each have over 1/3rd of the active votes (i.e. they combinedly have over 2/3rds), they are guaranteed to be the two final remaining candidates in IRV, so all other candidates can be eliminated (or equivalently, the pairwise matchup between the two can be tallied) to find the result. This explains why some criticize IRV as mathematically inducing two-party domination, since often it does result in two mainstream factions vying to be pairwise preferred to each other.

== Variants ==
See the [[Equal-ranking methods in IRV]] article. IRV can be done with equal ranking allowed. The two main ways of doing this are either fractional (split the voter's ballot equally between all of their highest-ranked candidates that are ranked equally (3 candidates ranked 1st each get 1/3rd of a vote)), or whole votes (give each highest-equally-ranked candidate one vote (3 candidates get 1 vote each and 3 votes total)).

With whole votes equal-ranking, there are two ways to find a winner (which give the same result in standard IRV but differ for whole votes): either eliminate candidates until only two remain, and declare the one with more votes the winner, or eliminate candidates until one or more candidates are supported by a majority of active ballots, and then elect the candidate with the largest majority. Some have argued<ref>[https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/e6bt6s/proportionality_failure_in_stv_with_equalranks/f9s5yno/?context=3]</ref> that in order to limit opportunities for pushover strategy with whole votes, a ballot that equally ranks candidates should be allowed to help those candidates win, but not prevent those candidates from getting eliminated.

One simple way to modify IRV to address many of the issues IRV opponents have without changing IRV fundamentally is to allow voters to approve candidates (using an [[approval threshold]]). If there are any majority-approved candidates, elect the most-approved of them, otherwise run IRV. Even if voters [[Favorite Betrayal|Favorite Betray]], they can still approve their honest favorite, giving that candidate a chance to still win. In addition, this allows voters to better avert the [[center squeeze effect]]. The standard argument made by IRV advocates against [[Approval voting]], that it fails [[later-no-harm]], has little to no relevance to this modification, since voters seeking to avoid hurting their favorite candidates' chances of winning in the approval round can simply refrain from approving anyone, forcing the election to run under IRV rules.


==See also==
==See also==