2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election
In March 2009, the city of Burlington, Vermont held a mayoral election. Progressive Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for Democrat Andy Montroll over Kiss. As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters narrowly voted to repeal IRV, reverting to their prior system of holding a runoff if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote.
Visual depiction of IRV results[edit | edit source]
Below is an infographic which attempts to put everything in a one-page result:
Further analysis[edit | edit source]
Pairwise results[edit | edit source]
This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009.
Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages:
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Bob Kiss (P) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Andy Montroll (D) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters
Results with Copeland and First-Past-the-Post[edit | edit source]
Below are the theoretical results of using different mechanisms other than IRV.
2009 Burlington mayoral election
- Election Format Version: 0.1
- Bob Kiss (Progressive)
- Andy Montroll (Democrat)
- Dan Smith (Independent)
- James Simpson (Green)
- Kurt Wright (Republican)
Ballots[edit | edit source]
Total votes: 8980
(see 2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data for the raw ballots used to generate the results below).
Results[edit | edit source]
Copeland method[edit | edit source]
The winner using the Copeland method is Montroll
Detailed Results[edit | edit source]
In Copeland, the candidate which beats all other candidates in pairwise matchups wins the election. In the event no such candidate exists, the candidate with the best win-loss-tie record wins the election.
Voting results of pairwise matchups:
Bob Kiss (Progressive)
Andy Montroll (Democrat)
Dan Smith (Independent)
James Simpson (Green)
Kurt Wright (Republican)
- Montroll: 5-0-0
- Kiss: 4-1-0
- Wright: 3-2-0
- Smith: 2-3-0
- Simpson: 1-4-0
- Write-in: 0-5-0
Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post)[edit | edit source]
The winner using the Plurality is Wright.
Detailed Results[edit | edit source]
The results below were calculated using Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post). When using ballots that allow for ratings, the top rated candidate is chosen. If there is more than one candidate with the highest rating, the ballot is considered invalid and is not counted.
|Bob Kiss (Progressive)||2585|
|Andy Montroll (Democrat)||2063|
|Dan Smith (Independent)||1306|
|James Simpson (Green)||35|
|Kurt Wright (Republican)||2951|
- Gierzynski, Anthony; Hamilton, Wes; Smith, Warren D. (March 2009). "Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election". RangeVoting.org. Retrieved 1 October 2017.
Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ... voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved
- Ornstein, Joseph T.; Norman, Robert Z. (2014-10-01). "Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections". Public Choice. 161 (1–2): 1–9. doi:10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2. ISSN 0048-5829.
Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure
- Lewyn, Michael (2012). "Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting". Phoenix L. Rev. 6: 117. SSRN 2276015.
election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'