2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Alaska: Difference between revisions

Did some minor editing and added a link from reddit to an EM-format ballot listing for the August election.
(Adding #Analysis section)
(Did some minor editing and added a link from reddit to an EM-format ballot listing for the August election.)
 
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A special election was held on August 16, 2022, with the results announced two weeks later on August 31. <ref>{{Cite news |last=Reuters |date=2022-08-31 |title=Democrat Mary Peltola wins special election to fill Alaska's U.S. House seat |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrat-mary-peltola-wins-special-election-fill-alaskas-us-house-seat-2022-09-01/ |access-date=2022-09-01}}</ref> [[Democratic Party|Democrat]] Mary Peltola won the open seat, in an apparent upset. Peltola's victory was the first Democratic party win an election for the [[United States House of Representatives]] seat representing Alaska since Nick Begich's posthumous 1972 victory.
 
The runoff count was reported on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted, with Peltola being declarddeclared the winner.<ref>{{cite web |last=Brooks |first=James |title=Alaska's first ranked-choice election will be a special vote to replace Rep. Don Young |url=https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/03/19/alaskas-first-ranked-choice-election-will-be-a-special-vote-to-replace-rep-don-young/ |date=March 19, 2022 |access-date=March 21, 2022 |website=Anchorage Daily News |language=en |archive-date=March 23, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220323050352/https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/03/19/alaskas-first-ranked-choice-election-will-be-a-special-vote-to-replace-rep-don-young/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |author=Iris Samuels |title=Peltola again grows her lead, but final outcome in Alaska's U.S. House race is days away |url=https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/08/26/peltola-again-grows-her-lead-but-final-outcome-in-alaskas-us-house-race-is-days-away/ |access-date=2022-08-28 |website=Anchorage Daily News |language=en |archive-date=August 28, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220828211809/https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/08/26/peltola-again-grows-her-lead-but-final-outcome-in-alaskas-us-house-race-is-days-away/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2022-09-01 |title=Democrat Mary Peltola wins special election to fill Alaska's U.S. House seat |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrat-mary-peltola-wins-special-election-fill-alaskas-us-house-seat-2022-09-01/ |access-date=2022-09-01 |archive-date=September 1, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220901012607/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrat-mary-peltola-wins-special-election-fill-alaskas-us-house-seat-2022-09-01/ |url-status=live }}</ref> The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean.<ref>[[W:Politics of Alaska|Wikipedia: Politics of Alaska]]</ref> Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008.<ref>[[W:2008 United States Senate election in Alaska|Wikipedia: 2008 United States Senate election in Alaska]]</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Rakich |first=Nathaniel |date=2022-09-01 |title=What Democrats' Win In Alaska Tells Us About November |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-alaska-tells-us-about-november/ |access-date=2022-09-01 |website=FiveThirtyEight |language=en-US}}</ref> Peltola was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13, 2022.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Sabbatini |first=Mark |date=September 5, 2022 |title=Peltola to be sworn in Sept. 13 |url=https://www.juneauempire.com/news/peltola-to-be-sworn-in-sept-13/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220908162907/https://www.juneauempire.com/news/peltola-to-be-sworn-in-sept-13/ |archive-date=September 8, 2022 |website=Juneau Empire}}</ref>
 
With her election, Peltola became the first indigenous Alaska Native elected serve in the [[United States Congress]], and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the [[United States House of Representatives]].<ref>{{cite web|last=Rockey |first=Tim |url=https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2022/09/01/peltola-become-first-alaska-native-first-female-congresswoman/?outputType=amp |title=Peltola to become first Alaska Native, first female Alaska congresswoman |publisher=Alaskasnewssource.com |date= |accessdate=2022-09-01}}</ref>
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Ballotpedia link: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_special_election_in_Alaska,_2022
 
Reddit user /u/robertjbrown also parsed the ballot data into EM ballot format.<ref>{{cite web|title=Alaska special election ballots|url=https://www.karmatics.com/voting/alaskaspecial.txt|author=robertjbrown}}</ref><ref name="reddit 2023">{{cite web | title=What should I use to parse Alaska special election JSON data? | website=reddit | date=2023-03-30 | url=https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/123uegt/what_should_i_use_to_parse_alaska_special/je8hxvc/?context=3 | access-date=2023-03-30}}</ref>
 
=== Results ===
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Copied from [[w:2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election]]:<ref>Copied from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election&oldid=1116513169</ref>
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right"
|+ colspan=6 | 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election<ref name="akdoe1"/><ref>{{Cite web |date=September 2, 2022 |title=State of Alaska {{!}} 2022 SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION {{!}} RCV Tabulation {{!}} August 16, 2022 {{!}} OFFICIAL RESULTS |url=https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/RcvDetailedReport.pdf |access-date=September 2, 2022 |website=Alaska Division of Elections}}</ref>
|-
! colspan=2 rowspan=2 | Party
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| style="text-align:left" colspan=8 | Democratic '''gain''' from Republican
|}
 
 
 
== August 2022 regular primary election==
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According to [[Jeanne Clelland]]'s paper titled "''Ranked Choice Voting And the Center Squeeze in the Alaska 2022 Special Election: How Might Other Voting Methods Compare?''":<ref>https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.00108</ref>
<blockquote>
The August 2022 special election for U.S. House Representative in Alaska featured three main candidates and was conducted by by single-winner ranked choice voting method known as ``instant runoff voting." The results of this election displayed a well-known but relatively rare phenomenon known as the ``center squeeze:" The most centrist candidate, Mark Begich, was eliminated in the first round despite winning an overwhelming majority of second-place votes. In fact, Begich was the {\<em >Condorcet winner}</em> of this election: Based on the cast vote record, he would have defeated both of the other two candidates in head-to-head contests, but he was eliminated in the first round of ballot counting due to receiving the fewest first-place votes.
The purpose of this paper is to use the data in the cast vote record to explore the range of likely outcomes if this election had been conducted under two alternative voting methods: Approval Voting and STAR (``Score Then Automatic Runoff") Voting. We find that under the best assumptions available about voter behavior, the most likely outcomes are that Peltola would still have won the election under Approval Voting, while Begich would have won under STAR Voting.
</blockquote>
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