Probabilistic voting model: Difference between revisions

The '''probabilistic voting theory''', also known as the '''probabilistic voting model''', is a [[voting theory]] developed by professors [[w:Assar Lindbeck]] and [[w:Jörgen Weibull]] in the article "Balanced-budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition", published in 1987 in the journal ''Public Choice'',<ref name="Lindbeck Weibull 1987 pp. 273–297">{{cite journal | last=Lindbeck | first=A. | last2=Weibull | first2=J. W. | title=Balanced-budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition | journal=Public Choice | publisher=Springer Science and Business Media LLC | volume=52 | issue=3 | year=1987 | issn=0048-5829 | doi=10.1007/bf00116710 | pages=273–297}}</ref> which has gradually replaced the [[median voter theory]], thanks to its ability to find equilibrium within multi-dimensional spaces.

Unlike the median voter theorem, what drives the equilibrium policy is both the numerositynumber and the density of social groups and not the median position of voters on a preference scale. This difference explains why social groups which have a great homogeneity of preferences are more politically powerful than those whose preferences are dispersed.