2009 Burlington mayoral election: Difference between revisions
(→Infographic: changing the section header, and attempting to use my new template) |
(→Infographic: VisualEditor mauled this page, but I think the diff is still vaguely readable. In short, the big changes are in the #Infographic section, where I'm messing with the infographic links. A lot of wikitext whitespace was taken out by VisualEditor, and I added a #Footnotes section while I was reviewing the diffs, since VisualEditor put the "references" tag in without me asking for it.) |
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== Infographic == |
== Infographic == |
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[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.png|alt=visual depiction of pairwise results in 2009|thumb|388x388px|Source file: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]]] |
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{{hashtag|hashtag=Visual depiction of IRV results}} |
{{hashtag|hashtag=Visual depiction of IRV results}} |
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To the right is an infographic which attempts to clearly depict the pairwise results in a tidy SVG diagram. Well, actually, it's a scaled down PNG, so it's a little hard to read. If you click it. it'll expand. |
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[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.png|frameless|none|700px]] |
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[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.png|alt=visual depiction of pairwise results in 2009|center|thumb|906x906px|Source file: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]]] |
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This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009. |
This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009. |
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Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages: |
Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages: |
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Below are the theoretical results of using different mechanisms other than IRV. |
Below are the theoretical results of using different mechanisms other than IRV. |
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2009 Burlington mayoral election |
2009 Burlington mayoral election |
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* |
*Election Format Version: 0.1 |
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* |
*Candidates: |
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** |
**Bob Kiss (Progressive) |
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** |
**Andy Montroll (Democrat) |
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** |
**Dan Smith (Independent) |
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** |
**James Simpson (Green) |
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** |
**Write-in |
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** |
**Kurt Wright (Republican) |
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== |
==Ballots== |
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Total votes: 8980 |
Total votes: 8980 |
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(see [[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data]] for the raw ballots used to generate the results below). |
(see [[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data]] for the raw ballots used to generate the results below). |
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== |
==Results== |
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=== |
===Copeland method=== |
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The winner using the [[Copeland method]] is '''Montroll''' |
The winner using the [[Copeland method]] is '''Montroll''' |
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==== |
====Detailed Results==== |
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In Copeland, the candidate which beats all other candidates in pairwise matchups wins the election. In the event no such candidate exists, the candidate with the best win-loss-tie record wins the election. |
In Copeland, the candidate which beats all other candidates in pairwise matchups wins the election. In the event no such candidate exists, the candidate with the best win-loss-tie record wins the election. |
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{| |
{| |
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|width="33%"| |
| width="33%" | |
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'''Bob Kiss (Progressive)''' |
'''Bob Kiss (Progressive)''' |
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{| |
{| |
||
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|'''Loss''' |
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|3477 |
||
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|to |
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|4067 |
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|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|'''Win''' |
||
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|3946 |
||
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|to |
||
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|3577 |
||
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|vs. Smith |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|'''Win''' |
||
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|5517 |
||
| |
|to |
||
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|845 |
||
| |
|vs. Simpson |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|'''Win''' |
||
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|6149 |
||
| |
|to |
||
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|116 |
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|vs. Write-in |
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|- |
|- |
||
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|'''Win''' |
||
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|4314 |
||
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|to |
||
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|4064 |
||
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|vs. Wright |
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|} |
|} |
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|width="33%"| |
| width="33%" | |
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'''Andy Montroll (Democrat)''' |
'''Andy Montroll (Democrat)''' |
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{| |
{| |
||
| |
|'''Win''' |
||
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|4067 |
||
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|to |
||
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|3477 |
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|vs. Kiss |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
| |
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|- |
|- |
||
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|'''Win''' |
||
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|4573 |
||
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|to |
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|2998 |
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|vs. Smith |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|'''Win''' |
||
| |
|6267 |
||
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|to |
||
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|591 |
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|vs. Simpson |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|'''Win''' |
||
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|6658 |
||
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|to |
||
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|104 |
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|vs. Write-in |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|'''Win''' |
||
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|4597 |
||
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|to |
||
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|3668 |
||
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|vs. Wright |
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|} |
|} |
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|width="33%"| |
| width="33%" | |
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'''Dan Smith (Independent)''' |
'''Dan Smith (Independent)''' |
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{| |
{| |
||
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|'''Loss''' |
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|3577 |
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|to |
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|3946 |
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| |
|vs. Kiss |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|'''Loss''' |
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|2998 |
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|to |
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|4573 |
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|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
| |
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|- |
|- |
||
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|'''Win''' |
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|5573 |
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|to |
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|721 |
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|vs. Simpson |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
|'''Win''' |
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|6057 |
||
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|to |
||
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|117 |
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|vs. Write-in |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|3793 |
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|to |
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|3975 |
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|vs. Wright |
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|} |
|} |
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|- |
|- |
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'''James Simpson (Green)''' |
'''James Simpson (Green)''' |
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{| |
{| |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|845 |
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|to |
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|5517 |
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|vs. Kiss |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
|'''Loss''' |
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| |
|591 |
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|to |
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|6267 |
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|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|721 |
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|to |
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|5573 |
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|vs. Smith |
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|- |
|- |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Win''' |
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|3338 |
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|to |
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|165 |
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|vs. Write-in |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|1309 |
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|to |
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|5274 |
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|vs. Wright |
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|} |
|} |
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'''Write-in''' |
'''Write-in''' |
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{| |
{| |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|116 |
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|to |
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|6149 |
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|vs. Kiss |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|104 |
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|to |
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|6658 |
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|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
||
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|'''Loss''' |
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|117 |
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|to |
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|6057 |
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|vs. Smith |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
|'''Loss''' |
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|165 |
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|to |
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|3338 |
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|vs. Simpson |
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|- |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|163 |
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|to |
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|6063 |
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|vs. Wright |
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|} |
|} |
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| |
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'''Kurt Wright (Republican)''' |
'''Kurt Wright (Republican)''' |
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{| |
{| |
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|'''Loss''' |
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|4064 |
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|to |
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|4314 |
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|vs. Kiss |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
|'''Loss''' |
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|3668 |
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| |
|to |
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|4597 |
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|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
|'''Win''' |
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|3975 |
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| |
|to |
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|3793 |
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|vs. Smith |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Win''' |
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|5274 |
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|to |
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|1309 |
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|vs. Simpson |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
|'''Win''' |
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|6063 |
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|to |
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|163 |
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|vs. Write-in |
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|- |
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Win-Loss-Ties: |
Win-Loss-Ties: |
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* |
*Montroll: 5-0-0 |
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* |
*Kiss: 4-1-0 |
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* |
*Wright: 3-2-0 |
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* |
*Smith: 2-3-0 |
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* |
*Simpson: 1-4-0 |
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* |
*Write-in: 0-5-0 |
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=== |
===Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post)=== |
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The winner using the [[Plurality]] is '''Wright'''. |
The winner using the [[Plurality]] is '''Wright'''. |
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==== |
====Detailed Results==== |
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The results below were calculated using [[Plurality]] (a.k.a. First Past the Post). When using ballots that allow for ratings, the top rated candidate is chosen. If there is more than one candidate with the highest rating, the ballot is considered invalid and is not counted. |
The results below were calculated using [[Plurality]] (a.k.a. First Past the Post). When using ballots that allow for ratings, the top rated candidate is chosen. If there is more than one candidate with the highest rating, the ballot is considered invalid and is not counted. |
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! |
! |
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! |
!Total Score |
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|- |
|- |
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|Bob Kiss (Progressive) |
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|2585 |
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|- |
|- |
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|Andy Montroll (Democrat) |
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|2063 |
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|- |
|- |
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|Dan Smith (Independent) |
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|1306 |
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|- |
|- |
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|James Simpson (Green) |
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|35 |
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|- |
|- |
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|Write-in |
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|36 |
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|- |
|- |
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|Kurt Wright (Republican) |
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|2951 |
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|} |
|} |
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== Footnotes == |
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<references /> |
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[[Category:IRV elections]] |
[[Category:IRV elections]] |
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[[Category:Vermont]] |
[[Category:Vermont]] |
Revision as of 23:56, 20 July 2020
In March 2009, the city of Burlington, Vermont held a mayoral election. Progressive Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for Democrat Andy Montroll over Kiss.[1][2][3] As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters narrowly voted to repeal IRV, reverting to their prior system of holding a runoff if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote.
Infographic
- hashtag "#Visual depiction of IRV results"
To the right is an infographic which attempts to clearly depict the pairwise results in a tidy SVG diagram. Well, actually, it's a scaled down PNG, so it's a little hard to read. If you click it. it'll expand.
:
Further analysis
Pairwise results
This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009.
Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages:
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Bob Kiss (P) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Andy Montroll (D) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters
Results with Copeland and First-Past-the-Post
Below are the theoretical results of using different mechanisms other than IRV.
2009 Burlington mayoral election
- Election Format Version: 0.1
- Candidates:
- Bob Kiss (Progressive)
- Andy Montroll (Democrat)
- Dan Smith (Independent)
- James Simpson (Green)
- Write-in
- Kurt Wright (Republican)
Ballots
Total votes: 8980
(see 2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data for the raw ballots used to generate the results below).
Results
Copeland method
The winner using the Copeland method is Montroll
Detailed Results
In Copeland, the candidate which beats all other candidates in pairwise matchups wins the election. In the event no such candidate exists, the candidate with the best win-loss-tie record wins the election.
Voting results of pairwise matchups:
Bob Kiss (Progressive)
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Andy Montroll (Democrat)
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Dan Smith (Independent)
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James Simpson (Green)
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Write-in
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Kurt Wright (Republican)
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Win-Loss-Ties:
- Montroll: 5-0-0
- Kiss: 4-1-0
- Wright: 3-2-0
- Smith: 2-3-0
- Simpson: 1-4-0
- Write-in: 0-5-0
Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post)
The winner using the Plurality is Wright.
Detailed Results
The results below were calculated using Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post). When using ballots that allow for ratings, the top rated candidate is chosen. If there is more than one candidate with the highest rating, the ballot is considered invalid and is not counted.
Votes:
Total Score | |
---|---|
Bob Kiss (Progressive) | 2585 |
Andy Montroll (Democrat) | 2063 |
Dan Smith (Independent) | 1306 |
James Simpson (Green) | 35 |
Write-in | 36 |
Kurt Wright (Republican) | 2951 |
Footnotes
- ↑ Gierzynski, Anthony; Hamilton, Wes; Smith, Warren D. (March 2009). "Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election". RangeVoting.org. Retrieved 1 October 2017.
Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ... voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved
- ↑ Ornstein, Joseph T.; Norman, Robert Z. (2014-10-01). "Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections". Public Choice. 161 (1–2): 1–9. doi:10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2. ISSN 0048-5829.
Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure
- ↑ Lewyn, Michael (2012). "Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting". Phoenix L. Rev. 6: 117. SSRN 2276015.
election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'