2009 Burlington mayoral election: Difference between revisions
(Shifting stuff around and playing with the table some more) |
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{| class="wikitable" |
{| class="wikitable" |
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|- |
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![[File:Democratic Disc.svg|60x60px]] |
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! Andy Montroll |
! Andy Montroll |
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([[Democratic Party]]<nowiki>) |</nowiki> |
([[Democratic Party]]<nowiki>) |</nowiki> |
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|4 Wins ↓ |
|4 Wins ↓ |
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|- |
|- |
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! |
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! |
!Bob Kiss |
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([[Vermont Progressive Party]]) |
([[Vermont Progressive Party]]) |
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| colspan="4" |3 wins, 1 loss (3-1) |
| colspan="4" | 3 wins, 1 loss (3-1) |
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|1 Loss → |
|1 Loss → |
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↓ 3 Wins |
↓ 3 Wins |
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3476 (BK) |
3476 (BK) |
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|- |
|- |
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! |
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! |
!Kurt Wright |
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([[Republican|Republican Party]]) |
([[Republican|Republican Party]]) |
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| colspan="3" |2 wins, 2 losses (2-2) |
| colspan="3" |2 wins, 2 losses (2-2) |
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3664 (KW) |
3664 (KW) |
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|- |
|- |
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! |
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! |
!Dan Smith (Independent) |
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| colspan="2" |1 win, 3 losses (1-3) |
| colspan="2" |1 win, 3 losses (1-3) |
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|3 Losses → |
|3 Losses → |
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1 Win ↓ |
1 Win ↓ |
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2997 (DS) |
2997 (DS) |
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|- |
|- |
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! |
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! |
!James Simpson ([[Green Party]]) |
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|0 wins, 4 losses (0-4) |
|0 wins, 4 losses (0-4) |
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|4 Losses → |
|4 Losses → |
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|5570 (DS) – |
|5570 (DS) – |
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721 (JS) |
721 (JS) |
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Line 50: | Line 55: | ||
|5514 (BK) – |
|5514 (BK) – |
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844 (JS) |
844 (JS) |
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|6262 (Montroll) – |
| 6262 (Montroll) – |
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591 (JS) |
591 (JS) |
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|} |
|} |
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# Montroll – defeats all candidates below, including Kiss (4,064 to 3,476) |
# Montroll – defeats all candidates below, including Kiss (4,064 to 3,476) |
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# |
#Kiss – defeats all candidates below, including Wright (4,313 to 4,061) |
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# |
#Wright – defeats all candidates below, including Smith (3,971 to 3,793) |
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# Smith – defeats Simpson (5,570 to 721) and the write-in candidates |
# Smith – defeats Simpson (5,570 to 721) and the write-in candidates |
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*Candidates: |
*Candidates: |
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**Bob Kiss (Progressive) |
**Bob Kiss (Progressive) |
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**Andy Montroll (Democrat) |
** Andy Montroll (Democrat) |
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**Dan Smith (Independent) |
**Dan Smith (Independent) |
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**James Simpson (Green) |
**James Simpson (Green) |
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==Results== |
==Results== |
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===Copeland method=== |
=== Copeland method=== |
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The winner using the [[Copeland method]] is '''Montroll''' |
The winner using the [[Copeland method]] is '''Montroll''' |
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|to |
|to |
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|4067 |
|4067 |
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|vs. Montroll |
|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Win''' |
|'''Win''' |
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|to |
|to |
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|116 |
|116 |
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|vs. Write-in |
|vs. Write-in |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Win''' |
|'''Win''' |
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|4314 |
|4314 |
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|to |
|to |
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|4064 |
|4064 |
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|vs. Wright |
|vs. Wright |
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|to |
|to |
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|104 |
|104 |
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|vs. Write-in |
|vs. Write-in |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Win''' |
|'''Win''' |
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|4597 |
|4597 |
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|to |
|to |
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|3668 |
|3668 |
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|vs. Wright |
| vs. Wright |
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|} |
|} |
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| width="33%" | |
| width="33%" | |
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|'''Loss''' |
|'''Loss''' |
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|3793 |
|3793 |
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|to |
|to |
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|3975 |
|3975 |
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|vs. Wright |
|vs. Wright |
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|to |
|to |
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|5517 |
|5517 |
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|vs. Kiss |
|vs. Kiss |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
|'''Loss''' |
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|to |
|to |
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|6267 |
|6267 |
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|vs. Montroll |
|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
|'''Loss''' |
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|to |
|to |
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|6149 |
|6149 |
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|vs. Kiss |
|vs. Kiss |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
|'''Loss''' |
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|to |
|to |
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|6658 |
|6658 |
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|vs. Montroll |
|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
|'''Loss''' |
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|to |
|to |
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|6057 |
|6057 |
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|vs. Smith |
|vs. Smith |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
|'''Loss''' |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Loss''' |
|'''Loss''' |
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|163 |
|163 |
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|to |
|to |
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|6063 |
| 6063 |
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|vs. Wright |
|vs. Wright |
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|} |
|} |
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Line 319: | Line 324: | ||
|to |
|to |
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|4597 |
|4597 |
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|vs. Montroll |
|vs. Montroll |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Win''' |
|'''Win''' |
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Line 325: | Line 330: | ||
|to |
|to |
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|3793 |
|3793 |
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|vs. Smith |
|vs. Smith |
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|- |
|- |
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|'''Win''' |
|'''Win''' |
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== |
==Infographic== |
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[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.png|alt=visual depiction of pairwise results in 2009|thumb|388x388px|Source file: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]. Original file history: https://wiki.electorama.com/wiki/File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg#filehistory]] |
[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.png|alt=visual depiction of pairwise results in 2009|thumb|388x388px|Source file: [[:File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]]. Original file history: https://wiki.electorama.com/wiki/File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg#filehistory]] |
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{{hashtag|hashtag=Visual depiction of IRV results}} |
{{hashtag|hashtag=Visual depiction of IRV results}} |
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Here is a link to the [[SVG]] version in a few different forms: |
Here is a link to the [[SVG]] version in a few different forms: |
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* |
*File link on this wiki (as of 00:18, 21 July 2020 (UTC)): |
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** |
**[[File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg]] |
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*** |
***Note: ^This link may turn into something enormous, because the SVG has a pretty big svg width and height (width="765" height="990") [[User:RobLa]] made it with Inkscape ''years'' ago, and [[User:Psephomancy]] uploaded it to [[electowiki]] in 2018 (and didn't ''strictly'' follow the terms of the CC by-sa license, but ''hopefully'' [[User:RobLa]] won't file a copyright infringement suit <code>;-)</code>) |
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* |
*Static link (as of 00:18, 21 July 2020 (UTC)): |
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** |
**https://static.miraheze.org/electowikiwiki/9/90/Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg |
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*** |
***Note: ^This may or may not work in some browsers, but it works pretty well in [[Mozilla Firefox]]. |
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* |
*Static PNG: |
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** |
**(fill me in) |
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== |
==Further analysis== |
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*[http://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html Brian Olson's analysis of the election] |
*[http://bolson.org/~bolson/2009/20090303_burlington_vt_mayor.html Brian Olson's analysis of the election] |
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Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages: |
Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages: |
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*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Smith Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters]] |
*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Smith Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters]] |
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*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Wright Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters]] |
*[[2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election - Wright Voters|Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters]] |
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=== |
===Footnotes=== |
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<references /> |
<references /> |
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Revision as of 03:57, 8 November 2021
In March 2009, the city of Burlington, Vermont held a mayoral election. Progressive Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for Democrat Andy Montroll over Kiss.[1][2][3] As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters narrowly voted to repeal IRV, reverting to their prior system of holding a runoff if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote.
Pairwise results
This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009 had they used a pairwise method:[4][5]
Andy Montroll
(Democratic Party) | |
4 wins and no losses | 4 Wins ↓ | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bob Kiss | 3 wins, 1 loss (3-1) | 1 Loss →
↓ 3 Wins |
4064 (Montroll) –
3476 (BK) | ||||
Kurt Wright | 2 wins, 2 losses (2-2) | 2 Losses →
2 Wins ↓ |
4313 (BK) –
4061 (KW) |
4597 (Montroll) –
3664 (KW) | |||
Dan Smith (Independent) | 1 win, 3 losses (1-3) | 3 Losses →
1 Win ↓ |
3971 (KW) –
3793 (DS) |
3944 (BK) –
3576 (DS) |
4570 (Montroll) –
2997 (DS) | ||
James Simpson (Green Party) | 0 wins, 4 losses (0-4) | 4 Losses → | 5570 (DS) –
721 (JS) |
5270 (KW) –
1310 (JS) |
5514 (BK) –
844 (JS) |
6262 (Montroll) –
591 (JS) |
This leads to an overall preference ranking of:[5]
- Montroll – defeats all candidates below, including Kiss (4,064 to 3,476)
- Kiss – defeats all candidates below, including Wright (4,313 to 4,061)
- Wright – defeats all candidates below, including Smith (3,971 to 3,793)
- Smith – defeats Simpson (5,570 to 721) and the write-in candidates
Montroll was therefore preferred over Kiss by 54% of voters, preferred over Wright by 56% of voters, over Smith by 60%, and over Simpson by 91% of voters.[6][7]
Results with Copeland and First-Past-the-Post
Below are the theoretical results of using different mechanisms other than IRV.
2009 Burlington mayoral election
- Election Format Version: 0.1
- Candidates:
- Bob Kiss (Progressive)
- Andy Montroll (Democrat)
- Dan Smith (Independent)
- James Simpson (Green)
- Write-in
- Kurt Wright (Republican)
Ballots
Total votes: 8980
(see 2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data for the raw ballots used to generate the results below).
Results
Copeland method
The winner using the Copeland method is Montroll
Detailed Results
In Copeland, the candidate which beats all other candidates in pairwise matchups wins the election. In the event no such candidate exists, the candidate with the best win-loss-tie record wins the election.
Voting results of pairwise matchups:
Bob Kiss (Progressive)
|
Andy Montroll (Democrat)
|
Dan Smith (Independent)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
James Simpson (Green)
|
Write-in
|
Kurt Wright (Republican)
|
Win-Loss-Ties:
- Montroll: 5-0-0
- Kiss: 4-1-0
- Wright: 3-2-0
- Smith: 2-3-0
- Simpson: 1-4-0
- Write-in: 0-5-0
Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post)
The winner using the Plurality is Wright.
Detailed Results
The results below were calculated using Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post). When using ballots that allow for ratings, the top rated candidate is chosen. If there is more than one candidate with the highest rating, the ballot is considered invalid and is not counted.
Votes:
Total Score | |
---|---|
Bob Kiss (Progressive) | 2585 |
Andy Montroll (Democrat) | 2063 |
Dan Smith (Independent) | 1306 |
James Simpson (Green) | 35 |
Write-in | 36 |
Kurt Wright (Republican) | 2951 |
Infographic
- hashtag "#Visual depiction of IRV results"
To the right is an infographic which attempts to clearly depict the pairwise results in a tidy SVG diagram. Well, actually, it's a scaled down PNG, so it's a little hard to read. If you click it. it'll expand.
Here is a link to the SVG version in a few different forms:
- File link on this wiki (as of 00:18, 21 July 2020 (UTC)):
- File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg
- Note: ^This link may turn into something enormous, because the SVG has a pretty big svg width and height (width="765" height="990") User:RobLa made it with Inkscape years ago, and User:Psephomancy uploaded it to electowiki in 2018 (and didn't strictly follow the terms of the CC by-sa license, but hopefully User:RobLa won't file a copyright infringement suit
;-)
)
- Note: ^This link may turn into something enormous, because the SVG has a pretty big svg width and height (width="765" height="990") User:RobLa made it with Inkscape years ago, and User:Psephomancy uploaded it to electowiki in 2018 (and didn't strictly follow the terms of the CC by-sa license, but hopefully User:RobLa won't file a copyright infringement suit
- File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg
- Static link (as of 00:18, 21 July 2020 (UTC)):
- https://static.miraheze.org/electowikiwiki/9/90/Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg
- Note: ^This may or may not work in some browsers, but it works pretty well in Mozilla Firefox.
- https://static.miraheze.org/electowikiwiki/9/90/Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg
- Static PNG:
- (fill me in)
Further analysis
Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages:
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Bob Kiss (P) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Andy Montroll (D) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Dan Smith (I) voters
- Schulze (Condorcet) results among Kurt Wright (R) voters
Footnotes
- ↑ Gierzynski, Anthony; Hamilton, Wes; Smith, Warren D. (March 2009). "Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election". RangeVoting.org. Retrieved 1 October 2017.
Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ... voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved
- ↑ Ornstein, Joseph T.; Norman, Robert Z. (2014-10-01). "Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections". Public Choice. 161 (1–2): 1–9. doi:10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2. ISSN 0048-5829.
Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure
- ↑ Lewyn, Michael (2012). "Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting". Phoenix L. Rev. 6: 117. SSRN 2276015.
election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'
- ↑ Olson, Brian (2009). "2009 Burlington Mayor IRV Failure". bolson.org. Retrieved 1 October 2017.
This is an IRV failure. The IRV result is clearly not what people actually wanted. More people liked Montroll over Kiss than the other way around, but IRV elected the loser.
- ↑ a b "2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election". Electowiki. Retrieved 2018-01-03.
- ↑ "IRV and Core Support". The Center for Election Science. Retrieved 2019-12-04.
- ↑ "Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election". RangeVoting.org. Retrieved 2016-04-01.