2009 Burlington mayoral election

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In March 2009, the city of Burlington, Vermont held a mayoral election. Vermont Progressive Party candidate Bob Kiss was elected, despite a 54% majority of voters expressing a preference for Democratic Party candidate Andy Montroll over Kiss.[1][2][3] As a result of the surprise outcome of the election, Burlington voters narrowly voted to repeal IRV, reverting to their prior system of holding a runoff if no candidate receives over 40% of the vote.

Anaylsis

The city of Burlington, Vermont held a mayoral election on March 3, 2009. This was the second mayoral election since the city's 2005 approval of instant-runoff voting (IRV).[4] A candidate from the Vermont Progressive Party (Bob Kiss) had won the first election under the system in 2006. In 2009, he was running for reelection.[5]

Unlike in the city's first IRV mayoral election three years prior, however, Kiss was neither the plurality winner nor the Condorcet winner.[6][7] This led to a controversy about the use of IRV in mayoral elections,[8] culminating in a successful 2010 citizen's initiative repealing IRV's use by a vote of 52% to 48%.[9][10][11] Ranked-choice voting would thus remain unused in Burlington until 2021, when voters again adopted IRV for all city council elections (but not mayoral ones) by a vote of 64% to 36%.[12]

Pairwise results

This is the results of the Burlington, Vermont mayoral election of 2009 had they used a pairwise method:[13][14]

Andy Montroll

(Democratic Party)

4 wins and no losses (4-0) 4 Wins ↓
Bob Kiss

(Vermont Progressive Party)

3 wins, 1 loss (3-1) 1 Loss →

↓ 3 Wins

4064 (Montroll) –

3476 (Kiss)

Kurt Wright

(Republican Party)

2 wins, 2 losses (2-2) 2 Losses →

2 Wins ↓

4313 (Kiss) –

4061 (Wright)

4597 (Montroll) –

3664 (Wright)

Dan Smith (Independent) 1 win, 3 losses (1-3) 3 Losses →

1 Win ↓

3971 (Wright) –

3793 (Smith)

3944 (Kiss) –

3576 (Smith)

4570 (Montroll) –

2997 (Smith)

James Simpson

(Green Party)

0 wins, 4 losses (0-4) 4 Losses → 5570 (Smith) –

721 (Simpson)

5270 (KW) –

1310 (Simpson)

5514 (BK) –

844 (Simpson)

6262 (Montroll) –

591 (Simpson)

This leads to an overall preference ranking of:[14]

  1. Montroll – defeats all candidates below, including Kiss (4,064 to 3,476)
  2. Kiss – defeats all candidates below, including Wright (4,313 to 4,061)
  3. Wright – defeats all candidates below, including Smith (3,971 to 3,793)
  4. Smith – defeats Simpson (5,570 to 721) and the write-in candidates

Montroll was therefore preferred over Kiss by 54% of voters, preferred over Wright by 56% of voters, over Smith by 60%, and over Simpson by 91% of voters.[15][16]

Results

Copeland method

The winner using the Copeland method is Montroll

Detailed Results

In Copeland, the candidate which beats all other candidates in pairwise matchups wins the election. In the event no such candidate exists, the candidate with the best win-loss-tie record wins the election.

Voting results of pairwise matchups:

Bob Kiss (Progressive)

Loss 3477 to 4067 vs. Montroll
Win 3946 to 3577 vs. Smith
Win 5517 to 845 vs. Simpson
Win 6149 to 116 vs. Write-in
Win 4314 to 4064 vs. Wright

Andy Montroll (Democrat)

Win 4067 to 3477 vs. Kiss
Win 4573 to 2998 vs. Smith
Win 6267 to 591 vs. Simpson
Win 6658 to 104 vs. Write-in
Win 4597 to 3668 vs. Wright

Dan Smith (Independent)

Loss 3577 to 3946 vs. Kiss
Loss 2998 to 4573 vs. Montroll
Win 5573 to 721 vs. Simpson
Win 6057 to 117 vs. Write-in
Loss 3793 to 3975 vs. Wright

James Simpson (Green)

Loss 845 to 5517 vs. Kiss
Loss 591 to 6267 vs. Montroll
Loss 721 to 5573 vs. Smith
Win 3338 to 165 vs. Write-in
Loss 1309 to 5274 vs. Wright

Write-in

Loss 116 to 6149 vs. Kiss
Loss 104 to 6658 vs. Montroll
Loss 117 to 6057 vs. Smith
Loss 165 to 3338 vs. Simpson
Loss 163 to 6063 vs. Wright

Kurt Wright (Republican)

Loss 4064 to 4314 vs. Kiss
Loss 3668 to 4597 vs. Montroll
Win 3975 to 3793 vs. Smith
Win 5274 to 1309 vs. Simpson
Win 6063 to 163 vs. Write-in

Win-Loss-Ties:

  • Montroll: 5-0-0
  • Kiss: 4-1-0
  • Wright: 3-2-0
  • Smith: 2-3-0
  • Simpson: 1-4-0
  • Write-in: 0-5-0

Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post)

The winner using the Plurality is Wright.

Detailed Results

The results below were calculated using Plurality (a.k.a. First Past the Post). When using ballots that allow for ratings, the top rated candidate is chosen. If there is more than one candidate with the highest rating, the ballot is considered invalid and is not counted.

Votes:

Total Score
Bob Kiss (Progressive) 2585
Andy Montroll (Democrat) 2063
Dan Smith (Independent) 1306
James Simpson (Green) 35
Write-in 36
Kurt Wright (Republican) 2951


Infographic

visual depiction of pairwise results in 2009
Source file: File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg. Original file history: https://wiki.electorama.com/wiki/File:Burlington2009election-infosheet.svg#filehistory
hashtag "#Visual depiction of IRV results"

To the right is an infographic which attempts to clearly depict the pairwise results in a tidy SVG diagram. Well, actually, it's a scaled down PNG, so it's a little hard to read. If you click it. it'll expand.

Here is a link to the SVG version in a few different forms:

Further analysis

Pairwise tallies for each of the candidates are available on the following subpages:

Raw data: 2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election data

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Gierzynski, Anthony; Hamilton, Wes; Smith, Warren D. (March 2009). "Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election". RangeVoting.org. Retrieved 1 October 2017. Montroll was favored over Republican Kurt Wright 56% to 44% ... and over Progressive Bob Kiss 54% to 46% ... In other words, in voting terminology, Montroll was a 'beats-all winner,' also called a 'Condorcet winner' ... However, in the IRV election, Montroll came in third! ... voters preferred Montroll over every other candidate ... Montroll is the most-approved
  2. ↑ Ornstein, Joseph T.; Norman, Robert Z. (2014-10-01). "Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections". Public Choice. 161 (1–2): 1–9. doi:10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2. ISSN 0048-5829. Although the Democrat was the Condorcet winner (a majority of voters preferred him in all two way contests), he received the fewest first-place votes and so was eliminated ... 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, VT, which illustrates the key features of an upward monotonicity failure
  3. ↑ Lewyn, Michael (2012). "Two Cheers for Instant Runoff Voting". Phoenix L. Rev. 6: 117. SSRN 2276015. election where Democratic candidate for mayor was Condorcet winner but finished third behind Republican and 'Progressive'
  4. ↑ 4. How did this change to IRV come about? Over 64% of Burlington voters voted in favor of the IRV Charter amendment in March, 2005, and it went into effect on May 12, 2005, when the governor signed the ratification bill, H.505, which had been passed by both the House and Senate.
  5. ↑ "Mayor Bob Kiss". City of Burlington. Archived from the original on 2007-11-29. Retrieved 2007-11-16.
  6. ↑ "Point/Counterpoint: Terry Bouricius Attempts To Rip Professor Gierzynski A New One Over Instant Runoff Voting Controversy (Now With All New Gierzynski Update!)". Archived from the original on July 26, 2011. Retrieved December 30, 2010.
  7. ↑ "Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election". RangeVoting.org. Retrieved 2016-04-01.
  8. ↑ Baruth, Philip (March 12, 2009). "Voting Paradoxes and Perverse Outcomes: Political Scientist Tony Gierzynski Lays Out A Case Against Instant Runoff Voting". Vermont Daily Briefing. Archived from the original on July 26, 2011.
  9. ↑ "Burlington voters repeal IRV". Wcax.com. March 2, 2010. Archived from the original on 2016-04-09. Retrieved March 28, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Instant run-off voting experiment ends in Burlington : Rutland Herald Online". Rutlandherald.com. 2010-04-27. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04. Retrieved 2016-04-01.
  11. ↑ "Official Results Of 2010 Annual City Election" (PDF). City of Burlington. March 2, 2010.
  12. ↑ "Burlington, Vermont, Question 4, Ranked-Choice Voting Amendment (March)". Ballotpedia.org. Retrieved 18 April 2021.
  13. ↑ Olson, Brian (2009). "2009 Burlington Mayor IRV Failure". bolson.org. Retrieved 1 October 2017. This is an IRV failure. The IRV result is clearly not what people actually wanted. More people liked Montroll over Kiss than the other way around, but IRV elected the loser.
  14. ↑ a b "2009 Burlington, Vermont Mayoral Election". Electowiki. Retrieved 2018-01-03.
  15. ↑ "IRV and Core Support". The Center for Election Science. Retrieved 2019-12-04.
  16. ↑ "Burlington Vermont 2009 IRV mayoral election". RangeVoting.org. Retrieved 2016-04-01.
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