Exhausted ballot
Quoting w:Issues affecting the single transferable vote ([1])
As seen above, voters in an STV election rank candidates on a preferential ballot. STV systems in use in different countries vary both as to ballot design and to whether or not voters are obliged to provide a full list of preferences. In jurisdictions such as the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland voters are permitted to rank as many or as few candidates as they wish. Consequently, voters sometimes, for example, rank only the candidates of a single party, or of their most preferred parties. A minority of voters, especially if they do not fully understand the system, might even "bullet vote", only expressing a first preference. Allowing voters to rank only as many candidates as they wish grants them greater freedom, but can also lead to some voters ranking so few candidates that their vote eventually becomes "exhausted"; that is, at a certain point during the count it can no longer be transferred and therefore loses an opportunity to influence the result. (In First Past the Post elections, many, sometimes most, votes are disregarded, as there is no opportunity to mark back-up preferences. To the extent that voters mark back-up preferences and the back-up preferences consulted - many are not consulted even if marked - the portion of votes ignored under STV is less than under First Past The Post. Back-up preferences are not consulted if the vote is cast at the start for a candidate who wins in the end as the last seat is filled, or cast for a candidate who is eliminated at the end. They are also not used if they are marked for a candidate who has already been elected or eliminated.)
Ballot exhaustion in RCV
Opponents of RCV bring the concept of Discarded Ballots (Exhausted Choices / Rankings) up as an important drawback in RCV.
Proactively and accurately explaining the challenges / drawbacks can help avoiding buyer's remorse down the line (e.g. Maine repealed RCV and eventually brought RCV back again).
What does it mean that some ballot Choices / Rankings are Discarded / Exhausted (never considered in the final tally)?
Opponent of RCV
A ballot becomes exhausted when a voter:
- Exhausted Choices: a voter can list their preferences such that when applied to a runoff round it is for a candidate who is already eliminated - the vote is taken out of the election
- Overvotes - example: voter accidentally ranks two candidates as their first choice
- Undervotes - example: voter ranks only one candidate on their ballot and that candidate is eliminated from the contest before the final round
This article of focusing on the first category "Exhausted Choices.
Ballot Exhaustion occurs when rankings on a voter’s ballot prevent their vote from being counted and determining the election’s end result. The ballot is discarded. These votes do not influence the final outcome.
Exhausted Choices
Ballot exhaustion occurs when a ballot is no longer countable in a tally as all of the candidates marked on the ballot are no longer in the contest.
An exhausted choice occurs when a voter ranks only candidates that are eliminated from a race.
For clarity - it is better to ignore overvotes and undervotes in the first round of tabulation as “exhausted votes” because voters could make the same mistake on a ballot in an election decided by plurality.
In other words, votes that are exhausted in the second and subsequent rounds of tabulation are purely a consequence of using ranked-choice voting method tabulation algorithm.
In cases where a voter has ranked only candidates that did not make it to the final round of counting, the voter's ballot is said to have been exhausted.
Ballot exhaustion occurs when all the candidates a voter ranked have lost even though two or more other candidates remain in the race.
This might happen because a voter chose not to rank all or many candidates or because a voter ranked as many candidates as allowed on the ballot paper. Since such a vote contains no rankings of a candidate still in the race, it is allowed to exhaust and is no longer included in the tally for winner.
Exhausted ballots - who wins and loses in close races - if, for example, ten percent of ballots are exhausted, and the election margin was less than five percent, the winner may have a majority of all the non-exhausted votes, but not a majority of total votes counted in the first round.
This leaves open the possibility that some other candidate was the true majority choice -- and that, if voters who had their *ballots exhaust* were permitted to choose again, say in a runoff election among the two leading candidates, a different winner might emerge with a clear majority of votes cast in the runoff.
Although this is theoretically possible, it is unlikely. But it also is grounded in assumptions about runoffs that overlook of how much more likely it is to have “exhausted voters” in a traditional runoff than “exhausted votes” in an instant runoff. Runoffs usually mean that fewer voters have a meaningful say in the decisive election.
Wasted votes
What's the difference between an exhausted ballot in RCV and a vote of no-preference in STAR?
An exhausted ballot in RCV is NOT COUNTED in the deciding round, even if it could have made a difference.
A vote of no-preference in STAR Voting's automatic runoff round IS COUNTED and the voter intent, to support or oppose both finalists equally, was respected.
It all comes down to voter intent. Voter intent should not be corrupted by the system. The system should count your vote and it should be able to make a difference if possible and help you gain representation, but in Ranked Choice Voting that's not necessarily the case. This can often be traced back to the fact that the RCV algorithm doesn't count most of the rankings voters put down on their ballots. Which of your rankings will be counted and which will not depends on the order of elimination. As a result, it may not be safe to vote for your favorite in RCV, just like with traditional Choose-One Voting. Worse, in some cases, voting your conscience can actually backfire, resulting in a worse outcome than if you hadn't voted at all in RCV.
Voters in any system can choose to vote in a way that's not as effective as it could have been, but the STAR Voting system won't waste the vote of a voter who showed up and voted their conscience and your vote will never backfire. It's also next to impossible for an inexperienced voter to accidentally waste their vote in STAR Voting.
Wasted Votes: Order of elimination and incomplete tabulation. In RCV, a voter's other candidates may be eliminated before their first choice, so that by the time their favorite is eliminated the vote may have nowhere to transfer to. This is called an exhausted ballot and these ballots are not counted in the deciding round of the election. On average in competitive RCV elections over 10% of ballots are exhausted. In some cases, the eliminated candidate may have actually been the candidate preferred over all others, but because RCV doesn't count most of the rankings voters put down, it can fail to elect the most popular candidate.
Compare these uncounted exhausted ballots in RCV to a vote of no-preference in STAR Voting, where a voter explicitly chose to score both finalists equally. These votes are counted and do make a difference to help advance the candidates who were more preferred. Allowing voters to give equal scores in STAR is the key to preventing spoiled ballots, and it's also key for eliminating vote-splitting between similar candidates and maintaining election accuracy in larger fields of candidates.
Scientific articles / studies
We analyze data taken from images of more than 600,000 ballots cast by voters in four recent local elections.
We document a problem known as ballot “exhaustion,” which results in a substantial number of votes being discarded in each election.
As a result of ballot exhaustion, the winner in all four of our cases receives less than a majority of the total votes cast, a finding that raises serious concerns about IRV and challenges a key argument made by the system's proponents.
Second, IRV does not ensure that the winning candidate will have received a majority of all votes cast, only a majority of all valid votes in the final round of tallying. Thus, it is possible that the winning candidate will fall short of an actual majority when a substantial number of ballots are eliminated, or “exhausted,” during the vote redistribution process. Third, and related to the previous point, there is some probability that a voter's ballot will become exhausted, eliminating their influence over the final outcome.
If at any point the voter did not rank a next choice (assuming her most favored choice or choices are eliminated), or all of the choices on the voter's ballot have been eliminated, the ballot is “exhausted” d meaning that it is excluded from future vote redistributions, and it does not affect the final outcome of the election. The ballot, in essence, is discarded. The process ends once a candidate receives a majority of the remaining valid votes.
Proponents of RCV - Exhausted Choices
https://www.rcv123.org/ranked-choice-voting-pros-cons#con8
Con: RCV has a problem with inactive/exhausted ballots
These occur when all the choices a voter has marked are eventually eliminated and their ballot has no active choices remaining. We should note that because of inactive ballots, the "majority" 50% in RCV can refer to a majority of active ballots, and not necessarily to 50% of the original number of ballots cast. We believe RCV works best when voters complete all of the available ranks and communicate their complete priorities. But voting is voluntary in the United States, and if a voter does not wish to make a rank, they are free not to - even if that means denying themselves a chance to make their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. choice known and possibly decisive in an election.
A voter may not wish to provide any support to candidates whose policies they strongly object to - even when that support is only relevant once all of the candidates that voter prefers have been eliminated from the race. We disagree that an inactive ballot is necessarily a sign of a voter not understanding how to take advantage of all that RCV has to offer. If a local election is about an incumbent doing a good job or not, some voters might be highly invested in the incumbent, and may not have strong feelings about any of the challengers.
It's important to explain that not all RCV jurisdictions allow a rank for every candidate. Minneapolis, for example, often has 15 or more candidates for Mayor, but allows voters to mark only their 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices. New York City's Democratic mayoral primary in 2021 had 13 candidates but allowed voters only five ranks. So RCV elections in these locations are certain to have a higher proportion of inactive ballots compared to places where the RCV ballot offers a rank for every candidate. They are completely valid uses of RCV.
It's true that an exhausted ballot no longer makes a difference in an election. However, it's important to point out that the same thing also happens quite often in conventional elections.
Imagine three candidates in a conventional election. The polls closed at 7 pm and the first precincts reporting show the race with two candidates at 40% each, and one candidate is way behind with just 20%. The counting for the 40%/40% race will probably go long into the night, and the voters who supported the 20% candidate realize their candidate can't win, and their vote is not relevant to the ongoing count. Whatever criticisms there are for exhausted or inactive RCV ballots, they should also be applied to the situation for conventional plurality elections we just described. In any race with more than two candidates, not every vote can matter right up until the finish line.
The percentage of inactive/exhausted ballots can depend on how close an election is, how many candidates compete, and how many rounds of counting are necessary for a winner to be declared. An example of a high number of inactive ballots is the very large and competitive 2014 race for Oakland, CA Mayor. Sixteen candidates competed, and it took all 16 possible rounds of counting for a winner to be declared. After three rounds of counting, the number of inactive ballots was 0.01%. By round 10, they reached about 1%, 7% in round 14, 14% in round 15, and then jumped to 24% in the final and 16th round of counting. It was in that final round the incumbent mayor was eliminated, and it seems only half of her large number of (possibly overconfident) supporters filled in a 2nd rank. A more typical situation is the 2018 election for Mayor of San Francisco. Nine candidates competed, and the election required nine rounds of counting. After five rounds of counting, just 0.01% of ballots had become inactive/exhausted. After the final and 9th round, 8.4 % of the original set of ballots had run out of ranks.
On one hand, exhausted, inactive ballots are a fact of RCV.
But there is another side to that coin: RCV is designed to be as inclusive as possible in how it incorporates 2nd, 3rd, 4th choices, etc. of the supporters of defeated candidates. On balance, we believe RCV is much, much, more inclusive of voter preferences than it is exclusive.
what are inactive or “exhausted” ballots?
An inactive or exhausted ballot counts for candidates in the first round but not in the final round.
Ballots become inactive for the following reasons:
- The voter doesn’t rank all candidates, and all of their ranked candidates are eliminated during the round-by-round count. Also known as voluntary abstention, this is the most common source of inactive votes.
- Election administrators limit voters to a certain number of rankings, such as three, and all of their ranked candidates are eliminated during the round-by-round count. This is known as involuntary exhaustion.
- The ballot is disqualified due to error, such as giving multiple candidates the same ranking.
See also
- spoiled ballots
- over-voted
- under-voted
- inactive choices
- disqualified ballots
- discarded ballots
- spent ballots
- Wasted votes
links
- https://fairvote.org/rcv_elections_and_runoffs_exhausted_votes_vs_exhausted_voters_in_the_bay_area/
- https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion
- Ballot (and voter) “exhaustion” under Instant Runoff Voting: An examination of four ranked-choice elections
Legal challange: